NFL Fantasy Football 2026 Mid Draft Value Picks: Quarterbacks

Here we are. The last article of my NFL Fantasy series. And that means ACTUAL NFL FOOTBALL is right around the corner. So let's wrap it up with three quarterbacks you can snag at the tail end of your fantasy drafts who could still carry you to the promise land. This is where Zero-QB drafters build their winner, where patient managers clean up, and where the market's short memory creates the most exploitable inefficiencies of any position. Today we have an MVP-level pocket passer coming off the biggest season of his career, the most consistent late-round QB of the last four seasons, and the biggest lottery ticket in the entire draft.

This is an ongoing series where I highlight players who REEK of value in fantasy drafts. We aren't talking about grabbing Ja'Marr Chase with the first overall pick, but instead we are going to be finding gems and value. Each article will feature a position within a range of draft rounds (we will always skip the first round). We will assume that these picks are for 12-team leagues with .5 PPR and will not be discussing in terms of Superflex. On top of that, I'll highlight a futures bet that corresponds with each player, all of whose odds can be found on BetOnline.

So without further ado, let's kick it off with NFL fantasy football 2026 early-round value picks: the quarterbacks. It's mock draft season baby!!!

1. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 10: Matthew Stafford

Time and time again the fantasy talking heads say "this player is too old, he is bound to drop off". And time and time again they are proven wrong. Stafford is just another example of an ageless wonder who continually impresses and puts up great fantasy numbers. One year ago, Matthew Stafford was sitting at QB22 ADP heading into the season. He finished as the QB2. The market shrugged, apparently learned nothing, and now has him going at QB12-15 — still outside the players being drafted in rounds 7-9 — despite the fact that he just led the NFL in passing yards and touchdowns in 2025 and is coming off arguably the best season of his entire career.

Stafford is coming off an MVP season in which he led the league in passing yards (4,707) and TD passes (46) while throwing only eight interceptions and taking just 23 sacks. He finished QB3 in fantasy scoring despite rushing for one yard all season and zero touchdowns. Stafford dealt with back issues last summer but played all 17 regular-season games plus three playoff games. The 38-year-old Stafford was feeling good enough to sign a contract extension that should keep him around for at least two more seasons. With offensive wizard Sean McVay as his head coach and the dynamic duo of Puka Nacua and Davante Adams at wide receiver, Stafford seems well positioned for another big season.

But let's be clear about one thing. No matter how prolific a passer Stafford is, he's capped at 20-22 PPG because he provides almost no rushing production. There are several quarterbacks with QB1 upside going outside the top 12. The touchdown rate regression is a real concern — Stafford's TD rate has historically oscillated rather than compounded, and a 46-touchdown season is almost never followed by another 46-touchdown season. This is a safe-floor, low-ceiling play, not a league-winner on his own.

But at round 10 in a one-QB league? Stafford's QB15 ADP means that we don't have to buy him at his MVP ceiling. Priced next to fellow pocket passers, Stafford is very live as a quality late-round QB capable of booming during any given week, especially in 6-point passing TD leagues. He's a plug-and-play QB2 who can win you weeks, drafted as a second quarterback or a streaming option. In round ten, that's all you need.

Matthew Stafford over 4,200 passing yards for -115 on BetOnline:

He threw for 4,707 yards in 2025 and has hit 4,000+ in four of his six healthy seasons with the Rams. The weapons are the same, the coach is the same, and he's coming off his best statistical season. Even with touchdown regression, the volume stays. At near-even money, this is exactly the kind of floor bet you want attached to a late-round streaming QB.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

2. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 11: Jared Goff

The ying to Staffords yang. If Matthew Stafford is the known floor play at round 10, Jared Goff is his direct counterpart at round 11 — and frankly might be the more reliable late-round pickup of the two because his consistency is the most ironclad in the entire quarterback pool.

Since joining the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff has recorded four consecutive seasons with at least 4,400 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. In 2025, he threw for 4,564 yards and 34 touchdowns to only eight interceptions. In his four healthy seasons with the Lions, he has finished inside the top 10 in fantasy points every single time. Four seasons, four top-10 finishes. That's the floor. That's the product. And he's going in round eleven.

The new variable this year is offensive coordinator Drew Petzing, who replaces Ben Johnson's successor after one adjustment year. Petzing is fresh off a 2025 season with the Cardinals in which he led journeyman quarterback Jacoby Brissett to a QB5 pace across his 12 starts. With nine of 11 offensive starters returning to a team that has not ranked outside the top five in yards per game since 2021, fantasy managers who forego the position in the early rounds should be looking to take advantage of Goff.

Goff is learning his fourth offense since arriving in Detroit, and camp hasn't given fantasy managers much reason to worry about this one. Lions senior writer Tim Twentyman raved about Goff's accuracy and ball placement and said he already has a "great grasp" of Petzing's system. The weapons aren't the concern either — Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Sam LaPorta are all back.

The ceiling is capped — zero rushing production means Goff's big weeks have to come entirely through the air, and when Detroit controls games it can suppress his attempts. But at round eleven, nobody is expecting a ceiling pick. They're expecting a player who won't kill their team and can win them a week when things click. Goff does that every single season without fail.

Jared Goff over 4,200 passing yards for -110 on BetOnline:

He's hit 4,400+ in each of his four healthy Lions seasons. Even in a year where Detroit struggled as an offense in 2025, Goff threw for 4,564 yards. The new OC coming from an Arizona offense that pushed pace and volume is a potential upward nudge on his attempts. At near-even money on a player who's done this four consecutive seasons, this is a free-money late-round hedge.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

3. Quarterback Fantasy Value Round 11+: Tyler Shough

This is the lottery ticket. This is the pick you're going to be texting your league about by Week 12 when half of them have never heard of the guy.

Tyler Shough is 26 years old, spent seven years in college navigating injuries and position battles, and stepped into an NFL starting role in Week 9 of 2025 as a complete unknown. What happened next was one of the best quarterback stories of the entire season. In his 10 starts, he averaged 14.9 fantasy PPG, but over the final six games that number jumped to 20.1 FPPG, boosted by adding 25.5 rushing yards and 0.5 rushing touchdowns per game.

From Week 8 to 18, Shough finished as the QB10 in total fantasy points as a rookie. He finished the season with 2,384 passing yards, 10 TDs, six interceptions and a respectable 91.3 passer rating. He also rushed 45 times for 186 yards and three scores. And the coaching context cannot be overstated. Kellen Moore's quarterbacks — Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, and Jalen Hurts — have scored at least 20.4 Fantasy points in each season Moore has been their coordinator, averaging 24.2 points per game over that span. Shough's situation is tailor-made for that kind of production.

Now entering year two as the unquestioned starter with an upgraded cast: the Saints added wide receiver Jordyn Tyson in the 2026 draft and Travis Etienne Jr. in free agency. New Orleans ranked first in tempo last season and should continue to push the pace under Moore. Training camp reports have been glowing — Cameron Wolfe noted that Shough was "so accurate" in camp practice with the "ball barely hitting the ground," showing much more command and comfort with the offense.

Projections have Shough for 4,296 passing yards, 296 rushing yards, and 28 total touchdowns — making him QB14 in six-point per passing TD leagues. He's currently being drafted as QB21 in round 13 in most formats. In some formats he slides all the way to round 15. At that price, for that ceiling? This is the pick that wins leagues.

Tyler Shough over 3,500 passing yards for +120 on BetOnline:

He threw for 2,384 yards in just nine starts as a rookie. A full 17-game slate in the fastest-tempo offense in the NFL, with better weapons, in a system that averages 24+ PPG from its quarterbacks? At plus money on a player who is essentially free in your draft, this is the kind of bet that turns a small unit into a serious payday. Take the ticket.

Get 50% up to $750 Deposit on BetOnline for this pick

Interested in More Content?

More NFL Content on Betting News:

• NFL Expert Betting Guide
• 2026 Top Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Wide Receiver – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Top Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Mid Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Late Draft Running Backs – NFL Fantasy
• 2026 Early Draft Quarterbacks – NFL Fantasy 
• 2026 Mid Draft Quarterbacks – NFL Fantasy

Follow me on X @gretzkybetzkys for daily plays and find me every Tuesday on the Puck It show 5:30 pm Eastern from the Betting News Twitch.

Make sure you are following Betting News on X and Twitch to keep up with everything we have going on! Notifications ON to stay on top of all the action.

Also tune in to one of our many streams during the week! Comes for the vibes, stay for the winners!

In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our best online sportsbooks below and sign-up for a bonus!