Kirko Chains in the Bayou: Raiders vs. Saints — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/27)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Sep 26, 2026, 5:36 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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+3.0
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44
-110u
+155
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The Las Vegas Raiders are undefeated through two weeks of NFL football and if that doesn't surprise you, you're a liar. This week they head to the Bayou to take on Tyler Shough and the New Orleans Saints.
The Saints are coming off their first win of the year and it was a big one; winning in Baltimore last week as a near 7-point dog.
This one's been on my radar all week so let's jump right into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Caesars Superdome; New Orleans, Louisiana
- Date: Sunday, September 27th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Las Vegas Raiders: Kirk Cousins (2025: 5-3; 205.5 YPG | 10 TD | 5 INT)
- New Orleans Saints: Tyler Shough (2025: 5-4; 250.7 YPG | 10 TD | 5 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Shuckin' it in Louisiana
The New Orleans Saints may finally have the QB of their future and while it's still a small sample size; Tyler Shough's been great. New Orleans was an extra point from being undefeated this year and a made 2-point conversion from being 2-0.
Shough has impressed through two weeks this year, putting up 410 yards and 3 touchdowns against the Lions in Week 1 and following that up with a road win against Lamar Jackson.
Shough has now won 6 of his 11 career starts and 10 of those starts he's come in as the underdog. This week the Saints come in as a 3-point favorite and it's against the undefeated Raiders.
Alongside Shough, Chris Olave has been fantastic. The connection between these two is undeniable and through two games; Olave's averaging 134 receiving yards per game, he's caught 18 of his 23 targets and scored a touchdown.
The Saints run game hasn't been able to get off the ground and even with the return of Alvin Kamara last week; the team finished with just 65 yards on the ground.
The Saints have surprised a lot of people through the first two weeks of the season and now they return to New Orleans for their first home game of the year.
Here to cause Havoc
It's only been two weeks, but the Raiders have very much exceeded expectations so far. After a win against the lowly Dolphins in Week 1, the Raiders went and shocked everyone with a divisional road win against the Chargers.
The Raiders scored 26 points against the Chargers and that was with Ashton Jeanty averaging just 2.3 YPC. The Chargers did a great job against Jeanty, holding him to just 48 yards on the ground and no scores.
So how did the Raiders respond? With Kirko Chainz.
Cousins threw for 253 yards, 3 touchdowns and finished the game with a passer rating of 113.1. Kirk's now got 6 touchdown passes thru two weeks and he's completing 68% of his passes.
Defensively the Raiders have been one of the best pass rushes in the NFL so far. They've got the 3rd best pass rush grade (via PFF). They've recorded the highest pressure rate in the NFL at 13.5% and they've got the 4th best pass rush win rate.
Vegas is tied with the Bengals and Vikings for the league lead in sacks (8) and Maxx Crosby hasn't even played a full snap count yet.
'Havoc' is the percent of plays a defense either: generates a pressure, a tackle for loss, fumble, interception or pass break up. The Raiders rank 3rd at 45.5%.
Sunday's Best Bets
Las Vegas Raiders +3 (-110) | Lucky Rebel
Can the Raiders really go 3-0 to start the season? I think so, but I'm taking the points.
This comes down to a battle of the trenches for me and Las Vegas just has a significant advantage here. The Raiders OL ranks 3rd in pass block grade, Cousins has been sacked just twice and the offense has no problem moving the ball.
On the DL, the Raiders have one of the best units in the league. They've got a league leading 8 sacks, they rank #1 in pressure rate and pass rush productivity, and they've got the 3rd highest havoc rate.
The Saints OL ranks 26th in pass blocking grade, Shough's been sacked 8 times so far this year and we've seen him struggle under pressure. Shough's only been pressured on 33% of his dropbacks this year and that's about to change this week.
The Raiders pressured both Malik Willis and Justin Herbert on over 45% of their dropbacks through the first two weeks and this Saints OL isn't any better.
When pressured this year, Shough's got just 222 yards, a 55% completion rate, 0 touchdowns and 1 interception. His passer rating drops to 70.2 and we've already seen him fumble 3 times this year.
I'm betting on the boys in the trenches, so give me the Raiders with the points.
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