NHL Best Bets 5/01/26 – Playoffs Round One

Buffalo Sabres teammates celebrate together after scoring a goal vs. the Bruins.

Peyton Krebs has scored at least one point in each of his first four career playoff games. He was held scoreless in Game 5 — but the turnover that ended Buffalo's night doesn't erase what he's built in this series, and it doesn't change the structural case for his point prop in a must-win game tonight. And in fact, it should be a motivating factor in him erasing this mistake, and elevating his name. This is exactly why a Krebs point looks like an NHL best bet tonight.

Entering Game 5, Krebs had recorded two goals, five points and a team-high plus-7 rating across his first four career playoff appearances, with at least one point in each outing. He and Bowen Byram are tied for the NHL lead in plus-minus these playoffs at plus-7, and Krebs joined Danny Gare as only the second player in Sabres history to record a point in each of his first four career playoff games. This is not a depth player scratching his way to a stat line. This is one of the most productive players playing on Buffalo's top forward line.

Krebs doesn't produce in a vacuum — he produces because of where he plays and who he plays with. The line of Krebs, Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch has outscored opponents 4-0 at 5-on-5 through the first four games of this series. A plus-4 goal differential at 5-on-5 is elite line performance in any context, and it reflects the kind of territorial dominance that generates sustained scoring opportunities. When Krebs is deployed alongside Thompson — one of the premier power forwards in the NHL — the puck finds the net. And when the puck finds the net through that line, Krebs is directly involved.

Krebs goal for +500 is worth a sprinkle as well.

Utah Mammoth forward Dylan Guenther celebrates after scoring a goal.

Dylan Guenther has been the most prolific shot generator in this entire series. Utah faces elimination at home tonight. The math on this prop is almost embarrassingly straightforward and exactly why it's an NHL best bet tonight.

Start with the number that should end the debate immediately. Through five playoff games, Guenther has recorded 26 shots on goal — an average of 5.2 per game in this series alone. The prop asks for 3.5. His playoff average is nearly 50% higher than the line. He has cleared 3.5 SOG in each of the last four games, including a six-shot performance in Game 5's dramatic double-overtime loss. This is not a player trending toward the line — he's been lapping it every single night.

After going scoreless in the series opener, Guenther has scored three goals and added two assists over the last four games, making him one of the most productive players on either team over that stretch. He earned Utah's first-ever playoff multi-point game in Game 2 and scored the Mammoth's first home playoff goal in franchise history in Game 3. The historic stakes of this season's playoff run flow through Guenther more than any other player on the roster, and he's responded with the kind of performances that make a franchise's inaugural postseason memorable.

Guenther is ripping rubber at an unbelievable rate in this series. Not only has he hit his 3.5 line in every game, he has averaged 5.2 SOG through the first five games. And the attempts are through the roof. He has three games with double digit shot attempts and is averaging 11 shot attempts a game. Add it all up and Guenther o3.5 SOG looks like an NHL best bet tonight.