NHL Best Bets 5/12/26 – Playoffs Round Two

Canadiens forward Alex Newhook tries to get the puck past the Flyers defender.

When you're hot, you're hot. And Alex Newhook has been blazing the Buffalo Sabres' wings (see what I did there?). The speedy center seems to slip past the Sabres wingers and defenders nightly, causing havoc and headaches with his breakaways. And this has resulted in four goals in his last two games against Buffalo off of a combined 12 SOG through three games.

The 2nd liner will need to stay hot for the Canadiens to hold a 3-1 lead against the deep Sabres team. Newhook scored the series-winning goal in Game 7 against Tampa Bay — Montreal's first playoff series victory in five years — giving him the biggest goal of the Canadiens' season. That wasn't a fluke moment. He has six points over his last 10 games, and the postseason has been his stage. Canadiens captain Nick Suzuki said of Newhook after Game 2: "I thought he was great right from the start. After that first goal he just continued to dominate the whole game." When your captain describes you as dominating, the shot prop and point prop tend to follow. StatMuse + 2

St. Louis landed on a trio of Newhook, Jake Evans and Ivan Demidov late in the Tampa series, and that group has been Montreal's most effective line through three games against Buffalo. Demidov — the 20-year-old rookie phenom — creates chaos in transition that opens space for Newhook to attack the net. Evans provides the defensive structure that lets the other two take offensive risks. It's a line that works precisely because the opposition focuses on shutting down Suzuki's top unit, leaving Newhook and Demidov to exploit second and third defensive pairs. And this is exactly why Newhook continuing to shoot and produce is an NHL best bet tonight.

Newhook's goal for +340 is worth a sprinkle as well.

Ducks forward Leo Carlsson takes the puck into the offensive zone.

The Anaheim Ducks top center, Leo Carlsson, took a rare night off. He did not record a single SOG and only had 3 shot attempts. This is a HUGE dropoff from his playoff performance thus far. And with the ability to take the lead in the series going up 3-2 with a win in Vegas tonight, I'm ready to turn right back to the big man to have a big game.

Carlsson leads all Anaheim skaters in playoff scoring with 10 points — four goals and six assists — through nine postseason games, tied with Jackson LaCombe for the team lead. That production flows directly through his shot volume. He's scored on 15.1% of his attempts this season — meaning at four shots per game, he's averaging just under a goal every two games. The shots generate the points. The points generate the wins. Tonight, Anaheim needs all three, and this is a big factor of why this is an NHL best bet.

Anaheim controlled large stretches of both Games 1 and 2 in Las Vegas, generating more dangerous offensive sequences and controlling five-on-five play in both contests despite the split result. The Ducks' shot-generation model hasn't broken down — their power play has simply gone 0-for-9 in the series, the single variable suppressing their offense. So it will not be surprising if the Ducks are able to put up 30+ SOG once again.

Carlsson has hit his 3.5 SOG line in all but three playoff games so far this season. He is averaging 5.8 shot attempts across those 10 games. A return to the mean feels more likely than his third miss in a row.