The new era of Formula 1 could not have started better for Mercedes, who has emerged from four mediocre seasons to be the team to beat in 2026. And after a season-opening 1-2 for George Russell and Kimi Antonelli in Australia, the forecast is pointing favorably for a Chinese Grand Prix 1-2 for the Silver Arrows.
In Melbourne, Russell started on pole and claimed his sixth career F1 win, 2.974 seconds ahead of his teammate and 15.519 seconds clear of Charles Leclerc.
The perfect start for Russell continued into this weekend in Shanghai as he won the sprint race, 0.674 seconds ahead of Leclerc and 2.554 seconds ahead of Lewis Hamilton.
In qualifying for the Sunday race, Russell's perfect run came to an end as an issue with his car spoiled his shot at pole.
Disappointment for Russell enabled Antonelli to make history, as the 19-year-old became the youngest-ever polesitter in Formula 1. That more than made up for the sprint race, in which he started second but finished fifth.
Russell still did enough to secure second, with Hamilton and Leclerc adding to a promising start for Ferrari by claiming third and fourth, respectively.
While Antonelli will start on pole, Russell is still the man to beat, according to Formula 1 odds at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks. Implied and true probabilities heavily point to another celebratory Sunday for Mercedes, who have not had consecutive race wins since Russell and Hamilton's back-to-back wins at the Austrian Grand Prix and British Grand Prix in 2024.
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver |
Odds |
Implied Probability |
True Probability |
| George Russell |
-140 |
58.33% |
52.39% |
| Kimi Antonelli |
+225 |
30.77% |
27.64% |
| Lewis Hamilton |
+1000 |
9.09% |
8.16% |
| Charles Leclerc |
+1200 |
7.69% |
6.91% |
| Lando Norris |
+6600 |
1.49% |
1.34% |
| Oscar Piastri |
+6600 |
1.49% |
1.34% |
| Max Verstappen |
+7000 |
1.41% |
1.27% |
| Pierre Gasly |
+40000 |
0.25% |
0.22% |
| Isack Hadjar |
+50000 |
0.20% |
0.18% |
| Oliver Bearman |
+75000 |
0.13% |
0.12% |
| Esteban Ocon |
+150000 |
0.07% |
0.06% |
| Nico Hulkenberg |
+150000 |
0.07% |
0.06% |
| Arvid Lindblad |
+250000 |
0.04% |
0.04% |
| Franco Colapinto |
+250000 |
0.04% |
0.04% |
| Liam Lawson |
+250000 |
0.04% |
0.04% |
| Alex Albon |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Carlos Sainz |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Fernando Alonso |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Gabriel Bortoleto |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Lance Stroll |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Sergio Perez |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
| Valtteri Bottas |
+300000 |
0.03% |
0.03% |
Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix Starting Grid
| Position |
Driver (Team) |
Q1 |
Q2 |
Q3 |
| 1 |
Kimi Antonelli (Mercedes) |
1:33.305 |
1:32.443 |
1:32.064 |
| 2 |
George Russell (Mercedes) |
1:33.262 |
1:32.523 |
1:32.286 |
| 3 |
Lewis Hamilton (Ferrari) |
1:33.522 |
1:32.567 |
1:32.415 |
| 4 |
Charles Leclerc (Ferrari) |
1:33.175 |
1:32.486 |
1:32.428 |
| 5 |
Oscar Piastri (McLaren-Mercedes) |
1:33.590 |
1:33.130 |
1:32.550 |
| 6 |
Lando Norris (McLaren-Mercedes) |
1:33.535 |
1:32.910 |
1:32.608 |
| 7 |
Pierre Gasly (Alpine-Mercedes) |
1:33.788 |
1:33.003 |
1:32.873 |
| 8 |
Max Verstappen (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) |
1:33.417 |
1:33.098 |
1:33.002 |
| 9 |
Isack Hadjar (Red Bull Racing-Red Bull Ford) |
1:33.632 |
1:33.352 |
1:33.121 |
| 10 |
Oliver Bearman (Haas-Ferrari) |
1:33.687 |
1:33.197 |
1:33.292 |
| 11 |
Nico Hülkenberg (Audi) |
1:34.116 |
1:33.354 |
— |
| 12 |
Franco Colapinto (Alpine-Mercedes) |
1:33.634 |
1:33.357 |
— |
| 13 |
Esteban Ocon (Haas-Ferrari) |
1:33.974 |
1:33.538 |
— |
| 14 |
Liam Lawson (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) |
1:34.139 |
1:33.765 |
— |
| 15 |
Arvid Lindblad (Racing Bulls-Red Bull Ford) |
1:33.906 |
1:33.784 |
— |
| 16 |
Gabriel Bortoleto (Audi) |
1:33.549 |
1:33.965 |
— |
| 17 |
Carlos Sainz (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) |
1:34.317 |
— |
— |
| 18 |
Alexander Albon (Atlassian Williams-Mercedes) |
1:34.772 |
— |
— |
| 19 |
Fernando Alonso (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) |
1:35.203 |
— |
— |
| 20 |
Valtteri Bottas (Cadillac-Ferrari) |
1:35.436 |
— |
— |
| 21 |
Lance Stroll (Aston Martin Aramco-Honda) |
1:35.995 |
— |
— |
| 22 |
Sergio Pérez (Cadillac-Ferrari) |
1:36.906 |
— |
— |
Chinese Grand Prix Predictions and Picks
In Melbourne, 17 of 22 cars finished the race, as both Oscar Piastri and Nico Hulkenberg did not start and Isack Hadjar, Valtteri Bottas, and Fernando Alonso exited early.
At this juncture of the season, this is a bet that still has a lot of value even at these odds because of potential reliability concerns with new cars, along with the potential of an inc(h)ident or two in the race.
I confidently went with this one for the Australian Grand Prix, only for Hulkenberg to not even start the race due to technical issues.
But after the fifth DNS of his Formula 1 career (in 255 races), Hulkenberg should bounce back this week by finishing in the points. He was set to start 11th in Australia, and that is where he will start this race, which will be his 11th Chinese Grand Prix.
That means everything and nothing at the same time, but in any event, I like these odds and Hulkenberg's chances to grab his first point(s) of the season.
