Desperation at the Plate: Friday Expert Picks in the MLB
Written by: TonesTakes
Published: Fri Oct 16, 2026, 1:31 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
169
6
-105u
-102
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-185
6.5
-105o
+101
Back off a loss yesterday thanks to a run in the bottom of the 5th inning. Our YTD mark now sits at 53-27 for a profit of 22.48 Units. We've lost 3 plays in a row so just like the Tampa Bay Rays, I am desperate for a win. Tonight brings Game 4 of the American League Championship Series between the Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians. The Milwaukee Brewers punched their ticket to the World Series last night, now the question is, how long will the series go?
How will Game 4 play out? Let's dive into the Best Bets but Before we do, if you are looking for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Predictions
There are some weather concerns for this one but as of this writing the game is set to go on as scheduled. The Cleveland Guardians took Game 3 of the series by a 3-2 score. Petey Halpin gave them the lead in the bottom of the 5th with a 2 run home run and the Guardians bullpen tossed 4 shutout innings to close it out.
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Pitching Matchup
- Tampa Bay Rays – RHP Nick Martinez (0-0, 4.91 ERA/1.64 WHIP)
- Cleveland Guardians – RHP Shawn Armstrong (0-0, 0.00 ERA/0.19 WHIP)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of our friends at LuckyRebel:
Run Line
- Tampa Bay -1.5 (+162)
- Cleveland +1.5 (-198)
Money-line
- Tampa Bay -112
- Cleveland -108
Total
- Over 6.5 (-115)
- Under 6.5 (-105)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians MLB Picks
Best Bet: Tampa Bay Rays Team Total Over 3.5 +116 Lucky Rebel
Despite the weather being a factor tonight, I am still giving Tampa a look on their team total. After only mustering a measly 3 hits and 2 runs in Game 3, I am expecting this offense to bounce back. The Guardian bullpen is highly taxed after Game 3's victory. Opener Shawn Armstrong is only expected to go an inning or so and he will give way to Tanner Bibee for the bulk of the innings, who struggled during the season. Bibee was 7-15 on the year with a 4.36 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Rust is also a factor as he's only pitched a third of an inning during the playoffs and he allowed 2 earned runs in that short stint. Behind Bibee could be relievers like Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi as the Guardians used their high leverage arms to secure yesterday's victory.
Can Tampa Find their offense?
I think Tampa Bay is better equipped at putting runs on the board tonight. Tampa is a high contact lineup and I think that plays well in the expected elements. The Rays ranked near the top of major league baseball in the regular season in hits and on base percentage. They can use their ability to make contact to pull balls in play and on a slick field, that could be the perfect recipe to reaching the 4 run plateau and securing a Game 4 win. I could also see the game itself going over the posted total of 6.5. I think the books are overreacting to the weather here and the total is a run too low but I'll just back the road team at a plus money price given their opponents pitching situation for tonight.
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