Three Picks on the Diamond for Monday: Expert MLB Picks for 9/21
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Sep 21, 2026, 12:50 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-215
7.5
105u
-103
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-189
7
-113o
-106
Today begins the final week of the MLB regular season, as teams might still be fighting for a spot in the playoffs. However as the postseason approaches, we are only blessed with three matchups on the diamond tonight. Let's dive into our expert MLB picks for the evening, and see if you will tail or fade our selections.
- MLB YTD
- 89-77-1 (53.6%)
- +10.51u
- Average Odds: +100
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles MLB Picks
Trey Yesavage and the Blue Jays need a miracle to sneak into the postseason
Blue Jays vs. Orioles Pitching Matchup
- Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Trey Yesavage (5-5, 3.65 ERA, 1.14 WHIP)
- Baltimore Orioles: RHP Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
Best Bet: Blue Jays ML (-103) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Both of these teams haven't quite been mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, but both need a miracle to get there. The Blue Jays are currently three games behind the Chicago White Sox for the final Wild Card spot, tied with the Houston Astros, while the Orioles are five games back. Neither controls their own destiny, but they do control whether or not they help themselves out.
I'll lean with the team that has a bit of an easier route to extend their season, and with the better starting pitcher. Shane Baz has allowed at least three earned runs in two straight starts (eight total runs), and in five of his last seven outings. His ERA is above 5.05 in the month of September, and the Orioles are 3-8 in his last 11 starts.
We aren't going to overthink this. Go Toronto.
Washington Nationals vs. Detroit Tigers MLB Picks
CJ Abrams has hits in six of his last seven games for the Nationals
Nationals vs. Tigers Pitching Matchup
- Washington Nationals: LHP DJ Herz (First Start)
- Detroit Tigers: RHP River Ryan (First Start)
Best Bet: Nationals/Tigers Over 8 (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Two guys are getting their first appearances of the year tonight at Comerica Park. Lucky for them, both teams have already been eliminated from the playoffs, so there is slightly less pressure. However, these guys are essentially trying out for a spot next season, so they should have plenty of motivation to perform.
But I'll still fade both pitchers and back runs from everyone in this game.
Minnesota Twins vs. San Francisco Giants MLB Picks
Zebby Matthews has been much better recently than throughout the whole season
Twins vs. Giants Pitching Matchup
- Minnesota Twins: RHP Zebby Matthews (9-10, 4.74 ERA, 1.24 WHIP)
- San Francisco Giants: RHP Blade Tidwell (1-2, 4.56 ERA, 1.20 WHIP)
Best Bet: Twins ML (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Again, we have two teams whose seasons will come to an end this week, regardless of how well they play. We've seen Zebby Matthews plenty this year, but not as much from Blade Tidwell. Despite his record and ERA, Matthews has pitched better recently. He is coming off six shutout innings against the Yankees, and picked up five wins in five starts during the month of August, posting a 2.90 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. Matthews seems to be finishing strong, so I'll be on his side of things in this matchup.
As for Tidwell, his ERA rises to 5.88 at Oracle Park this year, and the Giants are just 2-6 in his last eight outings since moving into the starting rotation in August. Have no fear, fade the man with me, and let's stack some extra coin before football returns this weekend.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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