Rivalry Renewed in the Bronx — Expert Picks in the MLB Today

Happy Friday. We've got a full slate of MLB games and only so many days left in August. Once the month changes, it feels like so do the winds. Let's try to take advantage while we can and bet a few more home runs before the season changes.

The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions. 

Dinger Cheat Sheet

• BA — Batting Average
• oBA — Opponent Batting Average
• xBA — Expected BA
• SLG — Slugging Percentage
• ISO — Isolated Power
• wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
• HH% — Hard Hit Rate
• BRL% — Barrel Rate
• HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
• XBH — Extra Base Hit
• RBI — Runs Batted In

Dinger Counter: 19-34; +24.2 units

Today's Dingers

• Rafael Devers Home Run (+490)
• Ben Rice Home Run (+470)

Are we due for a big game from Rafael Devers?

Rafael Devers Home Run (+490) | Lucky Rebel

It took a little while, but it finally seems like Rafael Devers is comfortable in the Bay Area. Since June 1st, Devers is hitting .244, he's hit 22 of his 29 home runs in that time frame and his play here Oracle Park has been great.

Devers has hit 17 home runs at home this year, he's batting .250 and his SLG jumps to .520 when in the Bay. While his numbers to drop against left handed pitchers, tonight he faces off with a kid making just his fifth career start.

Kohl Drake is on the bump for the Arizona Diamondbacks and he's had a tough start to his career. Drake's got a 5.40 ERA through 4 starts, he's giving up 1.7 HR/9 and he's been especially bad against left handed bats.

He's allowing lefties to hit .304 on the year, giving up a 20% BRL and 45% HH. Drake's pitch mix against lefties consists mainly of his 4-seam fastball and his cutter. Both are pitches we've seen Devers crush this year and tonight should be no different.

Winds are blowing out toward center field and tonight all I want to see is Devers hit one into the water.

Ben Rice Home Run (+470) | Lucky Rebel

Ben Rice has been struggling this month and a lot of that probably has to do with Aaron Judge not being in the lineup. He's batting under .200 this month, he's got just 4 home runs and tonight the Yankees take on the biggest rival; the Boston Red Sox.

Rice has been especially bad in this matchup this year, but 7 of the 9 games he's played against the Sox this year have been on the road. He's hit 35 home runs this year and 18 of those have come at home. His SLG jumps to .533 at Yankee Stadium and he's been pretty good against lefties.

Rice is hitting .242 against left handed pitching this year, but tonight pitching matchup looks very enticing. Patrick Sandoval has a 5.59 road ERA this year for the Red Sox, he's allowing lefties to hit .432 on the year with a .636 SLG.

He struggles against left handed bats and Rice is incredibly due for one big smash. In his last 5 games, Rice is hitting .333 with a 14% BRL and 43% HH. He's got a xSLG of .587 and 7 of his last 8 batted balls (vs. LHP) went 93+ mph.

Rice is so due.

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