MLB Best Bets & Predictions for Monday, May 11: Don’t Doubt the Dodgers

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Mon May 11, 2026, 12:08 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Shohei Ohtani at bat

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Happy Monday, everyone. We're starting a brand new week with a fresh slate of baseball action.

There are several spots that stand out through today's slate, and I've identified a few plays across the board. So let's take a look at my MLB best bets and predictions for Monday, May 11.

MLB Best Bets & Predictions for Monday, May 11

Roki Sasaki

San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers

When these division foes met a few weeks ago in the Bay Area, it was the Giants who took two of three games against the defending World Series champions.

Since that series, the Dodgers have gone 7-8 entering tonight's matchup, including dropping two of three at home against the Atlanta Braves over the weekend.

Can Dave Roberts' crew bounce back tonight against the Giants? To do so, they'll need to get past right-hander Trevor McDonald, who has made just one start this season.

McDonald tossed 7.0 innings against the Padres in that outing, allowing only two hits and one earned run, a homer, while striking out eight without issuing a walk. Talk about a great outing.

Now, he'll be tasked with proving himself against one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball. This marks the third time the 25-year-old has been called up from the minors, making this a pressure-packed spot for the young righty.

On the other side, Roki Sasaki is searching for a quality outing himself. The 24-year-old has struggled through six starts this season, posting a 5.97 ERA and 5.15 xFIP.

Since his season debut, which remains his best outing of the year, Sasaki has surrendered at least one home run in every start, while posting an xFIP of 4.57 or higher in each appearance.

Let's not pretend trusting Sasaki is comfortable right now, but the Giants' offense has not exactly been intimidating either.

Over the past few weeks against right-handed pitching, San Francisco owns a 90 wRC+, .675 OPS and .141 ISO.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers have posted a 99 wRC+, .692 OPS and .127 ISO in that same span, which is not much better. Still, it's hard to overlook the amount of talent throughout this lineup and the potential it has to break out at any moment.

I'm not buying into this Giants offense, and I also have concerns about McDonald handling a championship-caliber lineup in this environment. I'll take a shot on the Dodgers run line at +115 and hope Sasaki can maintain enough control on the mound to keep Los Angeles in command.

Bet: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (+115)

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Nathan Eovaldi just pitched seven scoreless against the Yankees, but can he do so again on the road? Rangers Yankees Picks

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Texas Rangers

Both the Diamondbacks and Rangers have won their last two games, securing series victories for both clubs over the weekend.

Arizona took two of three games at home against the New York Mets, while Texas halted the red-hot Cubs by claiming two of three contests in Arlington.

Now, these teams will square off to see which side can extend its winning streak to three games, with Michael Soroka taking the mound for the Diamondbacks and Nathan Eovaldi getting the nod for the Rangers.

Soroka may seem like an unstable pitcher to trust, given his 4.14 ERA, 5.03 xERA and .369 BABIP. However, his 3.39 FIP, 3.42 xFIP, 3.42 SIERA and 19% strikeout-to-walk ratio are far more encouraging.

After surrendering eight runs on 10 hits two starts ago in Milwaukee, Soroka bounced back against Pittsburgh, limiting the Pirates to one run on seven hits across 6.1 innings.

His counterpart, Nathan Eovaldi, carries some concerning underlying numbers as well. While Eovaldi owns a 4.15 ERA, his 4.40 xERA and 4.69 FIP point toward potential regression. Additionally, his 22% HR/FB ratio and hard-hit rate above 46% raise some concerns entering this matchup.

For the most part, Eovaldi has pitched well, but there are still some concerns within the underlying metrics.

There is not much separating these teams at the moment, which is why the plus-money price on Arizona is appealing. This matchup feels like it should be priced closer to -110 on both sides, yet the Diamondbacks are available at +111, which is enough value to justify a play on Arizona.

Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline (+111)

MLB Best Bets:

MLB Record: 51-47-1 (-1.60)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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