MLB Best Bets & Props for Thursday, May 14

He's allowed 15 earned runs on 18 hits over his last three outings, and against an above-average Astros offense, it's hard to envision those numbers improving.

As for Houston, the 26-year-old righty, Mike Burrows, is set to take the mound for the home team – and people may be confused as to why I don't share the same sentiment with his woes on the bump.

The reason being is because there is hope with Burrows. Despite his 5.04 ERA, his expected ERA shows him at 3.78, while his xFIP is at a fine mark of 4.06. He's also got a great hard-hit rate of 34% and barrel rate of just 6.6%.

The Mariners' offense has been solid over the past month, but this is a sneaky spot to fade them and grab some plus money with the Astros.

Bet: Astros Moneyline (+110)

Chicago Cubs vs Atlanta Braves

Like I talked about the other day, it's the most Chicago Cubs thing imaginable for them to put together multiple 10-game winning streaks, only to follow that up with a losing streak that's now reached four games.

And it doesn't look like things are going to get much better this evening, as the Cubs are set to face left-hander Chris Sale, who has been outstanding this season, which should surprise absolutely no one.

Sale is 6-2 through eight starts with a 2.20 ERA and 3.15 xFIP. He's also posting a .223 BABIP, 45% ground-ball rate, sub-.90 WHIP and 32% hard-hit rate.

Chicago has crushed left-handed pitching over the past month, leading the league in wRC+ at 146 against southpaws. However, during this losing streak, that number has plummeted to -100, which ranks dead last over this very short span. To be fair, the Cubs have logged only 19 plate appearances against lefties during that stretch, but the point remains: this offense is struggling right now, and that likely continues against one of the best pitchers in baseball.

On the flip side, right-hander Ben Brown gets the nod for the visitors. This will be just his second start of the season, but his 14th appearance overall.

His lone start came this past week in Texas, where he tossed four scoreless and hitless innings against the Rangers. Overall, Brown owns a 1.92 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 52% ground-ball rate and 34% hard-hit rate.

Pretty simple here: fade the ice-cold Cubs and ride the hot hand of Sale and the Braves.

Bet: Braves Run Line -1.5 (+130)

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