Is Fernando Tatis, Finally Back? — Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Aug 22, 2026, 6:28 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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8.5
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Saturdays are for the boys and during the summer, we can add dingers to the list. We've got a full slate of MLB games today and first pitch. I'm locked all the way in two big time hitters for today, so let's jump straight into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 18-33; +22.4 units
Today's Dingers
Mickey Moniak Home Run (+280) | Lucky Rebel
Mickey Moniak is playing at Coors Field tonight, up against a righty and winds are blowing and towards centre field. This is exactly where I love betting Moniak and tonight he gets the struggling Tanner Bibee.
Moniak has hit the 2nd most home runs on the Rockies, he's got 42 runs scored, 59 RBI and he's missed almost 30 games. He's been great for the Rockies and a big reason why is the altitude and this ballpark.
At home this year, Moniak's hit 16 of his 20 home runs, his batting average jumps from .264 to .302 and his SLG jumps to .674. He's got a 48% HH here in Denver and like I said, he's been crushing right handed pitchers this year.
Against righties this year, Moniak's hitting .275 with a .567 SLG, 12% BRL and 42% HH. At home and against righties; he's batting .314 with a .701 SLG and 13 home runs.
Moniak has a career high 20 home runs this year in just 89 games played. The 16 home runs he's hit at Coors Field have come in just 47 games and that alone would set a career high for the 29-year old.
Lastly, lets talk about Bibee. He's struggled with lefties this year and this will be his first career start at Coors Field. He's giving up a 14% BRL to lefties this year and a 39% HH.
However, in his last 3 games it gets really bad. Bibee's giving up a 14% BRL, 45% HH and 59% FB. This isn't the ballpark you can give up flyballs and I'm expecting Moniak to take advantage tonight.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run (+420) | Lucky Rebel
Is Fernando Tatis Jr. back? He's been struggling this season, but over his last 10 games; Tatis has been out of this world.
Tatis is batting .303 over his last 10 games, he's got 4 home runs, a .727 SLG, 58% HH and 19% BRL. On the year, Tatis is batting .281 with a .437 SLG and 15 total home runs.
At home his batting average jumps to .326 and he's got a 19% BRL and 52% HH here at Petco Park.
On the bump for the Twins is Dean Kremer. Kremer's giving up a 13% BRL to right handed bats this year and a 38% HH. He's given up 13 home runs this year, 6 to right handed bats and he's allowing 2.2 HR/9 on the season.
Lastly, Kremer's pitch mix consist mainly of different types of fastballs and that's never a good idea against Tatis. Tatis has never seen a fastball he doesn't like and with the winds blowing slightly out and towards right field; I like our chances tonight.
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