MLB Picks and Props for Monday, May 18: Can the Mariners Make Their Mark?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Mon May 18, 2026, 12:03 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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What's goin on, everyone? Happy Monday to all of you out there. We've got a fresh start to the week, where anything is possible for us – especially on the diamond.
There, I've got a few bets that I'll be taking for tonight's action, so let's go ahead and get right to it with my MLB picks and props for Monday, May 18.
MLB Picks and Props for Monday, May 18
Chicago White Sox vs Seattle Mariners
Let's begin tonight's action with our only non-player prop of the evening, which takes us to the Pacific Northwest at T-Mobile Park, where the Seattle Mariners and Chicago White Sox open up a three-game series.
Speaking of three-game series, the Mariners were just swept in one this past weekend by the San Diego Padres. Conversely, the Sox are coming off an impressive and exciting series win against their crosstown rival Chicago Cubs, taking two of three games.
Chicago is coming off a massive high after not only beating the Cubs in two of three games, but doing so in dramatic fashion with a walk-off homer in extra innings.
Now, after that rollercoaster of a game, the Sox have to travel across the country to Seattle for a late-night matchup.
That already puts Chicago at a slight disadvantage, and that's before even considering how much of a liability its starting pitcher may be tonight.
Left-hander Noah Schultz is the scheduled starter for the visitors, and he brings a 4.91 ERA and 5.10 xFIP into tonight's contest. Equally concerning is his 4% strikeout-to-walk ratio and 5.41 SIERA.
On the other side, there's much more confidence to be had with Mariners starter Bryan Woo. The right-hander is 3-2 through nine starts, posting a 3.91 ERA alongside a 3.28 expected ERA and 3.47 FIP. There are still some concerns with Woo, however, as his xFIP sits at 4.13 and he's not generating many ground balls with a low 30% rate.
The good news is his K-BB% is hovering around 18%, his WHIP sits at 1.00 and over his last two starts, he's gone six innings in each while allowing a total of two runs on five hits with 18 combined strikeouts. His xFIP was 2.74 in his most recent outing and 2.50 in the start prior. Woo is trending in the right direction, and I'm banking on that continuing against a visiting club that's in a difficult scheduling spot.
MLB Pick: Mariners Run Line -1.5 (+135)
MLB Props
- Max Meyer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128)
- Tatsuya Imai Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130)
The first pitching prop I'll be sweating out tonight belongs to Max Meyer, as I'm backing the under on his 5.5 strikeout line against the Atlanta Braves.
Meyer certainly has quality stuff, but his underlying numbers raise some concerns in this matchup. The right-hander enters Monday with an 11% barrel rate and 41% hard-hit rate, which is dangerous territory against one of the most explosive lineups in baseball.
Atlanta already saw Meyer once this season back on April 14, when he tossed 5.0 innings while allowing five hits and three earned runs with five strikeouts and one walk.
Meyer is averaging six strikeouts per start this season, but this feels like a difficult spot to trust him to pile up punchouts. Between Atlanta's familiarity with him and the power throughout the lineup, I'm expecting a shorter outing and enough traffic on the bases to keep him under this number.
The other prop I'll be targeting tonight is Tatsuya Imai under 4.5 strikeouts for the Houston Astros against the Minnesota Twins.
It's been a rough introduction to the majors for the 28-year-old. Through four starts and just 12.2 innings pitched, Imai owns a 9.24 ERA and 6.65 FIP, while also allowing loud contact at an alarming rate. His BABIP sits at .333, his HR/FB rate is 25% and his hard-hit rate is an ugly 53%.
The command issues haven't helped either. Imai has posted just a 3% strikeout-to-walk ratio, totaling 16 strikeouts compared to 14 walks so far this season.
He's stayed below this 4.5 strikeout mark in three of his four starts, with the lone exception being a surprising nine-strikeout outing against the Athletics.
The Twins can be prone to strikeouts at times, but given how shaky Imai has looked, this feels like a matchup where Minnesota can force deep counts, create baserunners and prevent him from working deep enough into the game to threaten this number.
MLB Picks & Props:
- Mariners Run Line -1.5 (+135 at Lucky Rebel)
- Max Meyer Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-128 at Lucky Rebel)
- Tatsuya Imai Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 at Lucky Rebel)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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