MLB Picks and Predictions for August 3, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Aug 03, 2026, 2:15 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The MLB Trade Deadline is here, and moves must be made final by 6:00 p.m. eastern tonight. However, there are still eight baseball games on the slate, one of which is scheduled to start roughly 20 minutes before the deadline. Let's see what we can decipher from this MLB betting board and find our favorite picks for today!
- MLB YTD
- 70-50-1 (58.3%)
- +18.48u
- Average Odds -101
Check out the best odds on the market at our top online sportsbooks.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros MLB Picks
Cristian Javier has not had his best stuff this year for the Astros, especially at home in Houston where he faces the Blue Jays tonight
Blue Jays vs. Astros Pitching Matchup
- Toronto Blue Jays: RHP Shane Bieber (2-2, 5.74 ERA, 1.63 WHIP
- Houston Astros: RHP Cristian Javier (1-1, 7.17 ERA, 1.83 WHIP)
Best Bet: Toronto/Houston Over 9 (-120) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Tonight we have two starting pitchers who haven't thrown very much this season, but when they do, things go wrong. Both Shane Bieber and Cristian Javier have pitched less than 32 innings so far this year, yet they still post a combined ERA of 12.91 and an average WHIP of 1.73. It makes sense that we back plenty of runs tonight.
Sure, both pitcher's have a small sample size, but Bieber is posting a 12.54 ERA in three road starts this year, giving up four in just 0.2 innings against Washington in his last outing. As for Javier, things aren't much better. His already high 7.17 ERA balloons up to 8.22 in three outings at home. Sure, he just pitched five shutout innings against the Angels, but it's the Angels. I don't expect much from their offense.
The Astros have been hitting .269 in 15 games since the All Star Break, and are hitting .343 in August. While the Blue Jay's batting average is down, they do see it increase about 10 data points when facing right handed pitching. Look for both offenses to produce plenty of runs tonight.
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks MLB Picks
Brandon Pfaadt had an amazing run in June and July. Can he keep it up tonight at home?
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup
- San Diego Padres; RHP Michael King (6-7, 3.38 ERA, 1.17 WHIP)
- Arizona Diamondbacks: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (5-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.29 WHIP)
Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
This doesn't quite fit the parameters of our MLB System Play. Sure, the Diamondbacks are at home tonight, but they are facing a right handed pitcher, not a lefty. However, I still trust the Snakes to get the job done for Brandon Pfaadt.
During the month of July, Pfaadt posted a 1.88 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP. He is coming off pitching seven scoreless innings against the Pirates, allowing just six hits and one walk. Plus, the guy has not allowed more than two earned runs in a start since May. He has been tearing teams up, and shows no signs of stopping. The Diamondbacks have won four of their last five, are 10-6 since the All Star Break, and are hitting .269 as a team, up from their season average of .241. This team is hot, and I think they can get a win at home.
Michael King just allowed four earned runs in six innings to the Rockies, giving up at least three earned runs in seven of his last 12 outings. San Diego has been hitting .290 as a team since the break, posting the same 10-6 record. However, on the road I think they will struggle against Pfaadt more than the hosts have difficulties with King.
The BN Prediction Engine has the Snakes priced around -116, therefore we are getting some value with the extra four cents off this price.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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