MLB Plays and Predictions for Tuesday, May 5: Making Moves on the Marlins

Danny Burke

Written by: Danny Burke

Published: Tue May 05, 2026, 1:37 pm ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

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What's going on, everybody? Hope your Tuesday is off to a great start.

We've got a large slate of action on the diamond this evening, so let's take a look at the games that are standing out to me with my MLB plays and predictions for Tuesday, May 5.

MLB Plays and Predictions for Tuesday, May 5

Sandy Alcantara Miami Marlins Cy Young Award

Baltimore Orioles vs Miami Marlins

The Baltimore Orioles have now lost five straight games and look to turn things around in South Beach when they take on the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins are also struggling a bit, having lost three of four in their most recent series against Philadelphia. They're hoping former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara can steer them in the right direction Tuesday evening.

Alcantara is 3-2 through seven starts with a solid 3.04 ERA, a 47% ground-ball rate and a 7.5% HR/FB rate. What concerns me is his 4.44 xFIP and low 8.3% strikeout-to-walk ratio, but outside of that his numbers are decent.

Plus, the Orioles have been a below-average offense against right-handers over the past couple of weeks.

Their starter tonight, Chris Bassitt, has been even more dreadful than their current losing streak. He's pitched just 28 innings through six starts, compiling a 5.46 ERA and a 5.32 xFIP. He has a .357 BABIP, a 2% K-BB rate and a 1.86 WHIP.

The Marlins' offense has been a bit more disappointing over the past couple of weeks compared to the Orioles, but they have the more trusted arm in Alcantara, which makes them the more appealing play.

Play: Marlins Moneyline (-138)

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Atlanta Braves vs Seattle Mariners

After getting swept in three games at home against the Kansas City Royals, the Seattle Mariners bounced back with a 5-4 win Monday night to open their series against the Atlanta Braves.

They'll look for another win behind the arm of George Kirby on Tuesday evening.

The 28-year-old right-hander has pitched well this season, posting a 3.00 ERA, 3.82 xFIP and a 56.5% ground-ball rate. He is trending a bit dangerously with a 40.5% hard-hit rate and a K-BB ratio of just 13%, but overall he's been reliable.

How reliable can he be against this formidable Braves lineup, though?

Over the past couple of weeks, Atlanta leads the league in ISO (.238), wRC+ (137) and OPS (.861) against right-handers. If there's a group that can inflict damage on Kirby, it's the Braves.

Meanwhile, Atlanta will send Bryce Elder to the bump and he's been even more impressive than Kirby.

Elder is 3-1 through seven starts with a 1.88 ERA and a 3.12 FIP. His ground-ball rate sits at 43% while his HR/FB ratio is 4.5%. He's also lacking a bit in the strikeout department, but is doing a better job of limiting hard contact, with a 38% hard-hit rate and a 3% barrel rate.

Furthermore, Seattle's offensive numbers haven't been nearly as strong as Atlanta's lately. The Mariners have a .155 ISO, 118 wRC+ and a .758 OPS. Those aren't bad by any stretch, but they're not as dominant as their adversary, who also has the better pitcher on the mound.

When you factor all of that in, along with an incredibly attractive price of +116, then the Braves become the clear choice in this matchup.

Play: Braves Moneyline (+116)

MLB Plays:

MLB Record: 44-35-1 (+5.35 units)

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Danny Burke
Danny Burke

Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.

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