MLB Plays for Monday, May 25: Count on the Cubbies
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Mon May 25, 2026, 12:12 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Welcome to another edition of our MLB plays, folks. Before we dive into today's action, we want to take a moment to recognize and honor those who gave their lives serving our country this Memorial Day.
With that in mind, let's take a look at a few games that stand out on today's card with my MLB plays for Monday, May 25.
MLB Plays for Monday, May 25
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates
The earliest game on today's slate features an NL Central showdown between the ailing Cubbies and the feisty Pirates.
Chicago has dropped eight consecutive games, but still enters this series opener in Pittsburgh as a slight favorite.
Ben Brown gets the nod for the visitors, and he's held his own extremely well since being thrown into a starting role. His last three outings have all been starts, and he's surrendered just three runs and eight total hits during that stretch, while tallying 16 strikeouts and four walks. His xFIP has also stayed below 2.70 in all three appearances.
Opposing him is right-hander Carmen Mlodzinski, who's also put together some quality performances this season. Through eight starts in 10 appearances, he's 4-3 with a 3.96 ERA and 3.85 xFIP. However, there are still some concerns within his profile, including a 4.65 expected ERA, .338 BABIP, 12.5% K-BB rate and, most importantly, an egregious 51% hard-hit rate.
The Cubs have looked awful lately, there's no denying that. But at some point, they're going to break through. This roster is too talented not to. They have a young emerging arm taking the mound and get a favorable matchup against a pitcher in Mlodzinski who appears to be trending in the wrong direction.
We're not being asked to lay nearly as much juice as we normally would because of Chicago's losing streak, so I'm willing to take advantage of the discounted price in a spot where the Cubs should come out as the better team.
Play: Cubs Moneyline (-118)
Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles
The other early game on today's slate takes us to Baltimore, where the home team finds itself at a clear rest disadvantage.
The Orioles are coming off a doubleheader against the Tigers on Sunday, while the Rays have played only two games over the past three days.
Tampa Bay also has a stud southpaw taking the mound in Shane McClanahan. His 2.82 ERA and 2.70 FIP were already enough to generate confidence in backing the Rays, but the situational edge only makes this spot more appealing.
The Orioles will turn to Kyle Bradish in hopes he can provide some length after Baltimore heavily utilized its bullpen during Sunday's doubleheader. The 29-year-old right-hander is 2-6 through 10 starts with a 4.13 ERA and 4.02 FIP. On top of that, he's walking nearly five batters per nine innings, while carrying a .331 BABIP and an 11% barrel rate.
The Rays have been one of the best teams in baseball, yet we're still getting them at a discounted price. There appears to be some rain in the forecast, which could lead to a delay, but if this game plays through, I want to be on Tampa Bay's side.
Play: Rays Moneyline (-116)
Michael Wacha Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135)
Our final wager will be a prop bet on Kansas City Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha.
I'm backing the 34-year-old right-hander to punch out at least five New York Yankees hitters this afternoon, a feat he already accomplished against them back in mid-April. In that outing, Wacha went 6.0 innings and struck out six batters while allowing just two runs on three hits.
Over the past month, New York has not shied away from strikeouts, ranking 24th in K-rate with a 23.7% mark during that span. If we narrow it down to the past two weeks, it gets even worse, as the Yankees own a 26.3% K-rate against righties, which ranks second-worst in baseball.
Look for Wacha to clear this mark against the Yankees once again.
MLB Plays:
- Cubs Moneyline (-118 at Lucky Rebel)
- Rays Moneyline (-116 at Lucky Rebel)
- Michael Wacha Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-135 at Lucky Rebel)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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