San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Picks and Predictions: May 16, 2026
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat May 16, 2026, 11:48 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two teams on the West Coast are in the middle of a heated weekend series. Although, things have been slightly one sided. The San Diego Padres find themselves in the Pacific Northwest for three games against the Seattle Mariners. This is the last time the two teams will go head to head unless they meet in the World Series, and so far, it's been all Padres. Let's check out our MLB picks and see if the home team can rally for a victory tonight.
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San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Betting Insights
Walker Buehler gets the nod tonight on the road in Seattle
Earlier this year, the Mariners headed south for three games at Petco Park, but I think they forgot to show up. San Diego successfully swept Seattle when they came to town about a month ago, winning 4-1, 7-6 and then 5-2. Plus, they earned the regular season win over the Mariners by beating them last night by a score of 2-0.
So if you are keeping track at home, the Padres are now 4-0 against Seattle this season, yet the Mariners are favored tonight. We have Logan Gilbert and Walker Buehler making the start for their teams. Let's look at this pitching matchup, their stats so far this season, as well as the betting odds to formulate a winning wager for this contest.
Matchup Information – Padres vs. Mariners – May 16
- Venue & Location: T-Mobile Park (Seattle, WA)
- Date: Saturday, May 16, 2026
- First Pitch: 7:15 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Padres vs. Mariners Pitching Matchup
- San Diego Padres: RHP Walker Buehler (2-2, 5.20 ERA, 1.35 WHIP)
- Seattle Mariners: RHP Logan Gilbert (2-3, 3.78 ERA, 1.16 WHIP)
Padres vs. Mariners Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of our friends at Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, as of May 16, 2026, at 11:15 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus as well as 50 slot spins immediately in your account and start betting at the sportsbook with the most competitive odds in the industry, and a wide variety of unique markets not offered anywhere else.
Run Line
- Padres +1.5 (-160)
- Mariners -1.5 (+135)
Moneyline
- Padres +141
- Mariners -168
Total
- Over 7 (-117)
- Under 7 (-103)
Both teams sit in second place of their division, with the Padres half a game back, while the Mariners are two full behind the Athletics. Obviously we still have plenty of baseball to be played, but I see motivation being slightly higher with the hosts, considering they are 0-4 at taking down this team from San Diego.
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners MLB Picks
Logan Gilbert is coming off pitching six scoreless innings. Can he repeat that performance?
Padres vs. Mariners Prediction: Mariners Win and Cover, Under 7
Best Bet: Mariners F5 -0.5 (-115) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Looking at the Padres' splits, they are relatively unchanged depending on the venue and the arm the pitcher uses. However that is not the case with the Mariners. Seattle hits .232 as a team this year, but that average jumps to .238 at T-Mobile Park, and all the way up to .245 against right handed pitching. Walker Buehler has not been shoving like we have seen in the past.
He's allowed at least two earned runs in seven of his eight starts this year, allowing at least three in half those outings. Recently, he hasn't walked a batter in two starts, but he's allowed 14 total runs in his last five starts. Plus his away splits are terrible. In three road outings, Buehler has an ERA above 10.00, and a WHIP of 2.35, which is a full point above his seasonal average. Why should I expect anything to change against a Mariners team that rips righties at home?
Gilbert also hasn't been overly phenomenal this year, but he is coming off six scoreless against the White Sox. I believe he is figuring some things out, which will result in him pitching well tonight. Then it's all on the M's bats to produce at home.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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