NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400 Predictions & Picks: Who Will Dazzle at Darlington?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sun Mar 22, 2026, 1:47 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The first several weeks of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season could not have gone much better for Toyota, whose cars took the checkered flag in four of the first five races. Will we see another Toyota win in today's Goodyear 400 at Darlington (3:00 p.m. ET, FS1)?
Tyler Reddick accounted for the first three of those wins, winning the Daytona 500, the Autotrader 400 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, and the DuraMAX Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas. Last week, Denny Hamlin picked up his 61st career Cup Series victory as he took the win in the Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
The lone non-Toyota win thus far is Ryan Blaney's Straight Talk Wireless 500 triumph. Were the race at Phoenix Raceway just another lap or two longer, Toyota might have an early-season sweep at this point, given how hard Christopher Bell was charging to catch Blaney at the end.
With Reddick claiming pole and 23XI Racing teammate Bubba Wallace joining him on the front row, another winning week for Toyota may be on the horizon.
And it's the current Cup Series points leader that sits atop Goodyear 400 odds at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, with Reddick out ahead of Kyle Larson, Hamlin, and William Byron.
Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Goodyear 400
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Driver | Odds | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +300 | 25.00% | 16.88% |
| Kyle Larson | +500 | 16.67% | 11.26% |
| Denny Hamlin | +700 | 12.50% | 8.44% |
| William Byron | +900 | 10.00% | 6.75% |
| Ryan Blaney | +1200 | 7.69% | 5.19% |
| Chase Briscoe | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.50% |
| Chase Elliott | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.50% |
| Ty Gibbs | +1400 | 6.67% | 4.50% |
| Brad Keselowski | +1600 | 5.88% | 3.97% |
| Bubba Wallace | +1600 | 5.88% | 3.97% |
| Christopher Bell | +1800 | 5.26% | 3.55% |
| Chris Buescher | +2500 | 3.85% | 2.60% |
| Kyle Busch | +2500 | 3.85% | 2.60% |
| Carson Hocevar | +3000 | 3.23% | 2.18% |
| Austin Cindric | +3300 | 2.94% | 1.99% |
| Erik Jones | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.32% |
| Joey Logano | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.32% |
| Ross Chastain | +5000 | 1.96% | 1.32% |
| Ryan Preece | +6600 | 1.49% | 1.01% |
| Daniel Suarez | +8000 | 1.23% | 0.83% |
| Austin Dillon | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.67% |
| Josh Berry | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.67% |
| Justin Allgaier | +10000 | 0.99% | 0.67% |
| Connor Zilisch | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.45% |
| Zane Smith | +15000 | 0.66% | 0.45% |
| John Hunter Nemechek | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.34% |
| Riley Herbst | +20000 | 0.50% | 0.34% |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.27% |
| Michael McDowell | +25000 | 0.40% | 0.27% |
| Shane van Gisbergen | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.23% |
| Todd Gilliland | +30000 | 0.33% | 0.23% |
| Noah Gragson | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% |
| Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | +50000 | 0.20% | 0.14% |
| Cole Custer | +100000 | 0.10% | 0.07% |
| Ty Dillon | +150000 | 0.07% | 0.05% |
| Cody Ware | +200000 | 0.05% | 0.03% |
| Timmy Hill | unlisted | 0.05%* | 0.03%* |
*Hill is unlisted at Lucky Rebel. Probabilities are based on Hill's odds at BetOnline, where he and Ware have the longest odds.
Goodyear 400 Starting Lineup
| Position | Driver (Car Number) | Team (Manufacturer) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyler Reddick (45) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 2 | Bubba Wallace (23) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 3 | Chase Elliott (9) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 4 | Kyle Larson (5) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 5 | Brad Keselowski (6) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 6 | Chris Buescher (17) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 7 | Ryan Blaney (12) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 8 | Kyle Busch (8) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 9 | Denny Hamlin (11) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 10 | Austin Dillon (3) | Richard Childress Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 11 | Daniel Suárez (7) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 12 | Austin Cindric (2) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 13 | William Byron (24) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 14 | Riley Herbst (35) | 23XI Racing (Toyota) |
| 15 | Justin Allgaier (48) | Hendrick Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 16 | Carson Hocevar (77) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 17 | Ryan Preece (60) | RFK Racing (Ford) |
| 18 | Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (47) | Hyak Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 19 | Zane Smith (38) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 20 | Michael McDowell (71) | Spire Motorsports (Chevrolet) |
| 21 | John Hunter Nemechek (42) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 22 | Christopher Bell (20) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 23 | Chase Briscoe (19) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 24 | Erik Jones (43) | Legacy Motor Club (Toyota) |
| 25 | Ross Chastain (1) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 26 | Josh Berry (21) | Wood Brothers Racing (Ford) |
| 27 | A.J. Allmendinger (16) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 28 | Ty Gibbs (54) | Joe Gibbs Racing (Toyota) |
| 29 | Joey Logano (22) | Team Penske (Ford) |
| 30 | Noah Gragson (4) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 31 | Todd Gilliland (34) | Front Row Motorsports (Ford) |
| 32 | Connor Zilisch (88) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 33 | Shane van Gisbergen (97) | Trackhouse Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 34 | Cody Ware (51) | Rick Ware Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 35 | Cole Custer (41) | Haas Factory Team (Chevrolet) |
| 36 | Ty Dillon (10) | Kaulig Racing (Chevrolet) |
| 37 | Timmy Hill (66) | Garage 66 (Ford) |
Goodyear 400 Predictions and Picks
William Byron to Finish in the Top Five (+140 at Lucky Rebel)
Two solid weeks have helped Byron make a move in the standings, and he should feel good about another positive performance today.
Byron is a former winner of the Goodyear 400, and his 2023 victory is part of a solid run of results in this race. In his last five starts, he has finished fourth (2021), 13th (2022), first (2023), sixth, and second (2025).
Last year's race may still leave a sour taste for Byron. He started on pole and dominated, leading 243 of 297 laps and winning the first two stages. However, he found himself watching Hamlin take the win. A perfect way to shake off that memory would be to notch his first win of the season today, and after good showings out west, he will feel confident about his chances to do so.
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