NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions & Picks: Chase Hopefuls Seek Sonoma Success

The 18^th race of the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series season brings a mix of beginnings and endings, and for someone, the Toyota/Save Mart 350 at Sonoma Raceway (3:30 p.m. ET, TNT) will bring a potentially pivotal victory.

This weekend's race marks the halfway point of the season, and it also marks the beginning of the five-race In-Season Challenge. All five of those races (this week, next week's return to Chicagoland Speedway, the summer Atlanta race, the first Cup Series race at North Wilkesboro Speedway since 1996, and the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway) will air on TNT, who will then turn over coverage to NBC/USA for the final 13 races.

The Toyota/Save Mart 350 is also the final non-oval race of the season, which might make a lot of people happy.

Likely not among that group is Shane van Gisbergen, who went into last week's Anduril 250 at Naval Base Coronado eyeing back-to-back wins and firmer footing for a Chase for the Cup spot.

After an early end to his Sunday in San Diego courtesy of an ambitious Austin Hill, SVG is now 17^th in the standings and in a rather perilous position.

2026 NASCAR Cup Series Standings (Through 17 Races)

A win at Sonoma would not give him the security he would have been hoping for ahead of last weekend, but it would give him a valuable boost as he returns to ovals, which are still not a strength for the Kiwi.

He will like his chances to come away with a strong points haul at Sonoma, but his quest won't start from the front. He only qualified sixth, while Ty Gibbs edged Carson Hocevar for pole.

Still, at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the man driving the No. 97 is the favorite, which should come as no surprise.

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Toyota/Save Mart 350 Picks & Quick Links

• Michael McDowell to Finish in the Top Five (+125 at Lucky Rebel)
• A.J. Allmendinger to Finish in the Top 10 (+120 at Lucky Rebel)
• Chris Buescher to Finish in the Top 10 (+130 at Lucky Rebel)
• Denny Hamlin to Finish in the Top 10 (+195 at Lucky Rebel)

Odds to Win the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Toyota/Save Mart 350

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, June 27, 2026.

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Starting Lineup

Toyota/Save Mart 350 Predictions and Picks

Michael McDowell to Finish in the Top Five (+125 at Lucky Rebel)

If McDowell's overall body of work for the season was better, these odds would be shorter.

Why? He is one of two drivers to finish in the top 10 in all three road/street races this season. He came in fifth at Circuit of the Americas, second at Watkins Glen, and (a rather disappointing for him) 10^th last week.

McDowell has also done well in recent starts at Sonoma, finishing third, seventh, second, and fourth in his last four Sonoma starts. After a strong qualifying run, McDowell is easily my favorite Toyota/Save Mart 350 pick.

A.J. Allmendinger to Finish in the Top 10 (+120 at Lucky Rebel)

Allmendinger is the other driver to finish in the top 10 at COTA (ninth), Watkins Glen (seventh), and Naval Base Coronado (fifth). His record at Sonoma is so-so (four top 10s in 14 starts, two in four starts with Kaulig Racing), but given his road results this season and how he fared in qualifying, I like the value here.

Chris Buescher to Finish in the Top 10 (+130 at Lucky Rebel)

With three straight top-10 finishes to his name (including a sixth-place finish in the Anduril 250), Buescher is in a strong position in the standings heading into the Toyota/Save Mart 350. But even though he doesn't need points as badly as, say, McDowell and Allmendinger, he will be aiming to keep the good times rolling this week.

He only qualified 15th, but he has run well in three of his five starts with RFK Racing (second in 2022, fourth in 2023, and third in 2024), and SVG is the only driver with a better average finish on road and street courses in recent seasons (not counting last week's winner, Corey Heim, who is batting 1.000). This is another high-confidence play.

Denny Hamlin to Finish in the Top 10 (+195 at Lucky Rebel)

This is the wild card of my Toyota/Save Mart 350 picks, but I can't pass it up. Since 2023, Hamlin has an average finish of 19.6 on road and street courses, with two top-five finishes and three top 10s. But he has overperformed that standard this season, finishing 10th at COTA, 16th at Watkins Glen, and 14th last week. At these odds, he's well worth a sprinkle to follow a solid qualifying run with a decent race result.