NASCAR Cup Series Cracker Barrel 400 Predictions & Picks: Will Hard Luck Hit Hamlin Again in Nashville?

For the second straight week, the NASCAR Cup Series will finish under the lights. And for the second straight week, weather could very well come into play, as rain is in the forecast for tonight's Cracker Barrel 400 at Nashville Superspeedway (7 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video).

Last week, wet weather wreaked havoc on the entire weekend in Charlotte. That included Sunday's Coca-Cola 600, which was called after 373 laps. While no one will begrudge Daniel Suarez for a long-awaited and emotional win days after the death of mentor Kyle Busch, the early ending spoiled a potential stretch showdown between Joe Gibbs Racing teammates Christopher Bell and Denny Hamlin, who finished second and third, and Cup Series points leader Tyler Reddick, who led a race-high 119 laps and finished fourth.

It was another near-miss for Hamlin, who owns a win at Las Vegas this season but fell short of victory after leading the most laps at Martinsville and Kansas and finished second to Chase Elliott at Texas Motor Speedway.

Though he has just the one win to show for it, the speed has certainly been there for Hamlin this season. It should be again tonight, but will weather hurt his hopes of a trip to Victory Lane?

The elements have already affected this weekend, resulting in the cancelation of yesterday's qualifying session. That worked out for Hamlin, who will start on pole for the second time this season and is the race favorite at Lucky Rebel and other top NASCAR betting sites. Will it tonight, however? As it stands, the skies should be dry for the business end of the race, which could be music to Hamlin's ears as he seeks the first win for Toyota in this race.

NASCAR Nashville Picks and Quick Hits

• Denny Hamlin to Finish in the Top Three (+100 at Lucky Rebel)
• Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+125 at Lucky Rebel)
• William Byron to Finish in the Top 10 (-130 at BetOnline)
• Joey Logano to Finish in the Top 10 (+175 at BetOnline)

This week's pack of picks is a four-piece and includes a rare pick of Logano, who is not off to a fantastic start this season but has an outstanding history at Nashville Superspeedway.

Odds for the 2026 NASCAR Cup Series Cracker Barrel 400: Who Are the Favorites to Win in Nashville?

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Sunday, May 31, 2026.

NASCAR Cup Series Nashville Lineup, Pole Winner, and Qualifying Results

NASCAR Nashville Predictions and Expert Picks

Denny Hamlin to Finish in the Top Three (+100 at Lucky Rebel)

While Hamlin did not get his third Nashville pole on speed, it is easy to back him here. Lady Luck has not been on his side at key times this season, but he is one of the reasons why Toyota looks like the manufacturer to beat this season.

Last week's result was his fifth top-five finish of the season and his third top-three finish, and a fourth top three of the season is a strong possibility tonight. No active driver owns a better average at intermediates and large ovals than Hamlin (10.0 in 37 races since the start of the 2023 season and 12.6 in 295 career such races), who has finished no worse than fourth in his last 10 starts at these tracks (three wins, three runner-up finishes, three third-place finishes, and one fourth-place finish).

Kyle Larson to Finish in the Top Five (+125 at Lucky Rebel)

Larson has been mighty good at intermediates and large ovals in recent years as well. In fact, since the start of the 2023 season, no one has more wins at these tracks than Larson's six in 36 starts.

Larson is also a former winner at Nashville Superspeedway, having won the inaugural race in 2021 on the way to winning his first Cup Series title. That 2021 win is the cherry on top of a strong Nashville resume, which includes five top-10 finishes in five starts and three top-five finishes.

Larson carries a bit more feast (four top-five finishes this season) or famine (four finishes outside the top 30) risk than Hamlin, but when he's on, he's on, and he should be on tonight.

William Byron to Finish in the Top 10 (-130 at BetOnline)

This continues to be a weird season for Byron, who doesn't appear close to winning a race but is cobbling together enough results to remain comfortably in a Chase place even without the aid of many stage points.

Given his and his team's track record, this is all likely temporary. Even as he has become a perennial NASCAR Cup Series championship contender, Byron has experienced lulls. Ultimately, this should go down as a mere blip on his resume.

In the meantime, however, you take the small wins where you can get them. Last week's ninth-place finish counts as one of those, given how much time he spent well outside of the top 10.

Can he keep it going this week? Byron owns three top-ten finishes at Nashville, coming in third in 2021, sixth in 2023, and fifth last year.

Joey Logano to Finish in the Top 10 (+175 at BetOnline)

Ryan Blaney is flying the flag for Team Penske thus far this season, as he currently sits third in points and has eight top-10 finishes in 13 races.

That matches the number of combined top-10 finishes for his teammates, both of whom currently sit outside of the top 16.

Logano, who is 18^th, helped his cause last week with an eighth-place finish in the Coca-Cola 600, which broke a run of four straight finishes of 30^th or worse. The three-time NASCAR Cup Series champion should like his chances of another solid result this week. In five career starts at Nashville, he has a win (in 2024), two top-five finishes, and four top-10 finishes. His numbers at intermediates and large ovals aren't great overall (just six top fives, 13 top tens, and a 16.7 average finish in 37 starts since 2023), but I think he will have a good night tonight.