YellaWood 500 Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will Any of the Dandy Dozen Tame Talladega?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Fri Sep 29, 2023, 10:46 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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In the first four races of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, there have been four different winners. Will we see the same result on Sunday in the YellaWood 500 at Talladega (2:30 pm ET, NBC)?
In last Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway, William Byron was the beneficiary of teammate Kyle Larson crashing while he and Bubba Wallace were racing for the lead late in the race.
Byron jumped out ahead after the restart and pulled away to take the win, his series-leading sixth of the season.
As a result, Byron will be a part of the Round of 8. But who will join him in not having to sweat out the last Round of 12 race at the Charlotte roval next week?
NASCAR Cup Series Playoff Standings (Entering the YellaWood 500)
- 1. William Byron – 3084 points
- 2. Denny Hamlin – 3074
- 3. Chris Buescher – 3059
- 4. Christopher Bell – 3057
- 5. Martin Truex Jr. -3056
- 6. Ross Chastain – 3049
- 7. Brad Keselowski – 3045
- 8. Kyle Larson – 3039
- 9. Bubba Wallace – 3037
- 10. Tyler Reddick – 3036
- 11. Ryan Blaney – 3028
- 12. Kyle Busch – 3022
While Byron is locked in for the next round and Hamlin is in a strong position as well, the two Kyles and Ryan Blaney are among the drivers who need a strong showing on Sunday to enhance their hopes of remaining in the championship chase after Charlotte.
According to odds that are out ahead of qualifying tomorrow, a couple of the drivers who are in a perilous position at present are among the leading favorites to take the checkered flag at Talladega.
Odds to Win the 2023 YellaWood 500
Odds are via BetUS.
- Brad Keselowski +1100
- Joey Logano +1100
- Ryan Blaney +1200
- Chris Buescher +1200
- Denny Hamlin +1400
- Bubba Wallace +1400
- William Byron +1600
- Chase Elliott +1600
- Aric Almirola +1800
- Christopher Bell +1800
- Kyle Busch +2000
- Kyle Larson +2000
- Alex Bowman +2500
- Chase Briscoe +2500
- Ross Chastain +2500
- Austin Cindric +2500
- Kevin Harvick +2500
- Tyler Reddick +2500
- Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +2500
- Austin Dillon +2800
- Martin Truex Jr. +2800
- Michael McDowell +3300
- Ty Gibbs +3300
- Erik Jones +3300
- Ryan Preece +3300
- Daniel Suarez +3300
- A.J. Allmendinger +4000
- Carson Hocevar +4000
- Corey LaJoie +5000
- Todd Gilliland +6600
- Justin Haley +6600
- Harrison Burton +10000
- Riley Herbst +20000
- Chandler Smith +20000
- Ty Dillon +25000
- B.J. McLeod +50000
- J.J. Yeley +50000
- Brennan Poole +50000
YellaWood 500 Predictions and Picks
In last year's YellaWood 500, Chase Elliott started 16th but finished third after Stage 1, led at the end of Stage 2, and took the win ahead of Ryan Blaney and Michael McDowell.
Each of the top three finishers in last year's YellaWood 500 started outside of the top 15, as Blaney started 19th and McDowell 29th.
This year's spring race at Talladega, the GEICO 500, saw a similar result, as Kyle Busch started 17th but took the win ahead of Blaney, who notched his second straight second-place finish at the track.
Blaney could do with another such finish, and he's certainly capable of that and then some. He owns wins in both the spring and fall races, having won the fall race in 2019 and the spring race in 2020.
I usually don't lead with a top-five finishing position pick for a Cup Series race, but that is what I am doing this week. At Bovada, Blaney is +245 to finish in the top five in the YellaWood 500, and I love the value there given his history at Talladega.
Elliott is next on the board. Other than his fuel disaster at Watkins Glen, Elliott has been churning out solid results over the last several races, finishing in the top ten five times (and 11th in last Sunday's Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas Motor Speedway). At Bovada, Elliott is +120 to finish in the top ten, which I'm locking in with no hesitation.
Recent YellaWood 500 Winners
- 2022: Chase Elliott
- 2021: Bubba Wallace
- 2020: Denny Hamlin
- 2019: Ryan Blaney
- 2018: Aric Almirola
- 2017: Brad Keselowski
- 2016: Joey Logano
- 2015: Joey Logano
- 2014: Brad Keselowski
- 2013: Jamie McMurray
There are a number of good value spots for YellaWood 500 finishing position bets, but if I backed all of the ones I'd like to take, it would be too many.
With that in mind, I'll limit it to two more. First up is Buescher, who is going to probably sneak up and win the championship when all is said and done.
Buescher has finished in the top ten in six of his last nine races, and I just have a feeling he'll be up there somewhere near the front at the end on Sunday.
Last is his teammate/owner Keselowski, a four-time winner of the spring race (2009, 2012, 2016, 2021) and a two-time winner of the fall race (2014, 2017). In 28 career Cup Series starts at Talladega, Keselowski has 14 top-ten finishes, and he finished fifth in this year's GEICO 500.
In addition to his formidable history at Talladega, Keselowski is the only driver to finish in the top ten of each of the first four playoff races. He is -105 at Bovada to finish in the top ten, and that is just too good to pass up.
Recent Results for Brad Keselowski
- Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400: 7th
- Bass Pro Shops Night Race: 8th
- Hollywood Casino 400: 9th
- Cook Out Southern 500: 6th
- Coke Zero Sugar 400: 2nd
The unpredictable nature of these races means that having to come from deeper in the field doesn't rule you out of being able to win. That is why 29 drivers have winner odds of +5000 or shorter, which is not something you will see for most races.
With that in mind, I'm passing on making a YellaWood 500 winner pick.
But if I were to pick someone, it would be Keselowski, Blaney, or Elliott. Given my lack of success with NASCAR race winner picks this year, that is your cue to not pick any of those three drivers.
Where to Bet on the NASCAR Cup Series
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada and BetUS offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to BetUS and Bovada, where Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds used in this article are from, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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