Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions: Thursday College Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu Jan 22, 2026, 9:57 am ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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I'm not going to lie to you and say Thursday has the most exciting NCAA Basketball slate, but regardless, we found some spots to wager on so let's get into our favorite picks. Although I thought of taking the Louisiana Monroe/Marshall Over 160 to start our day at noon eastern, I decided to hold off. But we're going deep into the night as we head to the Island to end things this evening.
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Best NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions January 22
Milwaukee Panthers vs. Robert Morris Colonials NCAA Basketball Picks
DeSean Goode leads the Colonials with 15.1 points and 9.1 rebounds per game
Best Bet: Robert Morris -5.5 (-113) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Robert Morris is at home where all of their advanced analytics improve. The Colonials are about middle of the pack in just about every category, but there's a few outliers that stand out. For starters, they aren't too great in the free throw department. Bobby Mo is bottom 20 in FT rate offense and defense, and shoot just 63.5% from the stripe. However, they rank top 20 in offensive rebounds, top 15 in assist rate and are one of the slowest teams in the nation. They will control the pace of this game and limit Milwaukee's possessions.
Robert Morris has lost their last two in front of their home crowd by a combined seven points, and are in a classic revenge spot at home. The Colonials lost by two points at Milwaukee earlier this season as five point underdogs. Now we see them favored by that many (slightly more) in their own gym. That's quite the swing, and I'm leaning into the fact that this is a telling line, rather than an overcorrection.
The Panthers are absolutely pitiful defensively, especially on the road. Milwaukee ranks No. 250 overall on Bart Torvik. They are No. 279 in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 296 in turnovers forced, and No. 307 in opponent eFG%. In 11 games away from their home gym, the Panthers are No. 314 overall defensively, No. 334 in eFG% defense and No. 340 in turnovers. Not to mention their FT Rate offense jumps from No. 289 to No. 327. Give me Bobby Mo to cover this spread.
Merrimack Warriors vs. Iona Gaels NCAA Basketball Picks
Can Merrimack slow down the Iona Gaels on the road tonight?
Best Bet: Merrimack/Iona Under 141.5 (-109) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I'll be honest with you folks, this line has steamed down. I originally liked this total at 145.5, and was able to book under 144.5 before it really started ticking down overnight. You are all adults, you can make your own decisions, but this is going to be a very low scoring game.
The Warriors are one of the slowest offenses in the country, and they do a great job of taking care of the ball and contesting shots. Despite ranking No. 207 in the country, the Warriors are No. 83 in turnover percentage and No. 74 in opponent eFG%. They are one of the best teams at defending the perimeter, ranking top 10 in 3P Rate defense and top 35 in opponent 3P%. But offensively, they can't shoot, ranking north of 280 in eFG% and are bottom 20 in offensive rebounding. Defense is the name of their game.
The Gaels are a much faster team, but they rank bottom 30 in both offensive rebounds and FT Rate offense. Overall, they rank No. 233 in the nation, and are No. 214 in adjusted offensive efficiency and No. 139 in eFG%. Defensively, the Gaels are top 90 overall and top 50 in opponent eFG%, plus they are third in the nation at home in keeping teams off the free throw line. We have two teams whose defense is much better than their offense, so I'll keep it simple and take the under.
CS Bakersfield Roadrunners vs. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors NCAA Basketball Picks
Aaron Hunkin-Claytor leads the Rainbow Warriors with 3.9 assist per game, adding six points and three rebounds as well
Best Bet: Hawaii -15 (-113) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We're headed to the Island tonight so of course, we are laying the points with the Rainbow Warriors. They break the top 100 overall and are extremely good defensively. Hawaii ranks No. 21 in adjusted defensive efficiency, No. 17 in offensive rebounds allowed and are fifth in the nation in opponent eFG%. They get in your face, contest shots, and don't give up second chance points.
Now, the offense needs a little work, especially with taking care of the ball, but they jump from No. 59 to No. 24 in the country at getting to the free throw line at home, shooting from the stripe nearly half the time. Bakersfield sucks. I could end the handicap there.
The Roadrunners are north of 300 in the following categories: Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, eFG%, TO Rate, Offensive Rebounds Allowed and FT Rate Defense. They play far too fast for their own good, and that will simply lead to more possessions for Hawaii to cover, and probably be shooting free throws. Sure, Bakersfield can get to the line and knock down their free throws as well, but the rest of the offense is horrendous and they are facing a VERY good defensive unit. When we head to the Island, it's Hawaii or nothing, and tonight we're backing the hosts to cover this spread.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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