Thursday College Basketball Must Bet Spreads and Totals | January 4, 2024

Another fully loaded college basketball slate. Just a handful of ranked schools, but this slate was prepared for true sickos, a mid-major frenzy. The first tip is at 11:30am Eastern and the last is at 11:00pm.

It is going to be another beautiful day. Let's get after it!

Write Up Transparency

Let's check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.

• 3-2 (60%)
• +1.00 Units

(As of January 3, 2024)

Jacksonville vs Florida Gulf Coast: Jacksonville (+5.5)

 

Matchup Information – College Basketball

• Venue & Location: Alico Arena | Lee County, FL
• Date: Thursday, January 4, 2024
• Tip Off: 7:00pm Eastern

The Stank:

This is simply a systematic play. Florida Gulf Coast (FGC) is coming off the game of their lives taking down No. 17 FAU 72-68 as 17.5 point underdogs. This is simply fading the Eagles in a massive letdown spot. Plus, Jacksonville is in the perfect get-right spot. They are coming off a 43-point loss to No. 1 Purdue on December 21st. During the two-week break, I think the slight underdog should be ready to take on the Eagles.

THIS…JUST…HAPPENED! #LETSFLOCKINGGO pic.twitter.com/tWDKfz0tay

— FGCU Men's Hoops (@FGCU_MBB) December 31, 2023

The Dolphins do not have a team that jumps out at you, but they are not the worst team in the country. They actually match up pretty well against FGC. They both do not play great defense and neither offense really grabs you.

However, in road/neutral site matchups Jacksonville is 168th in offensive-adjusted efficiency and 130th in 2-point percentage. The Dolphins have been battled tested, but they have been absolutely demolished in every game played against a top-100 opponent. This should be a relatively close game, both teams are in the high 200's, according to Bart Torvik's rankings.

The Pick: Jacksonville (+5.5) Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada

North Texas vs Wichita State: Under 132.5

Matchup Information – College Basketball

• Venue & Location: Charles Koch Arena | Wichita, KS
• Date: Thursday, January 4, 2024
• Tip Off: 9:00pm Eastern

The Stank:

One of my favorite teams in college basketball to bet on is North Texas. They head to Wichita Kanas to take on the Shockers. The total opened at 129.5 and in just a few hours has crept up to 132.5. 

Both of these teams are solid defensively, top 85 in defensive adjusted efficiency. There will be no need to worry about the deep ball as these two teams are top 50 in 3-point percentage defense. Especially, when Wichita is chucking threes. They are 298th in 3-point percentage and 303rd in 3-point rate, according to Bart Torvik.

We make our @American_Conf debut Thursday night on ESPN2.

📝 https://t.co/uEMKiGOotw#GMG pic.twitter.com/pEBNrU99SJ

— UNT Basketball (@MeanGreenMBB) January 3, 2024

North Texas is known for its lockdown defense and slow tempo. The Mean Green in road/neutral sites is seventh in defensive adjusted efficiency. Which is why they are one of my favorite teams, slow and hate when teams score. In road/neutral matchups this season the Mean Green are allowing 59.8 points per game. On top of that, they are top 65 in almost every defensive category in Bart Torvik's rankings. They are also one of the worst offensive teams in road/neutral games. In the 300s in 2-points percentage, effective field goal percentage, turnover percentage, and free throw rate. What beautiful numbers for an under.

As for Wichita at home this season, they are top 75 in defensive-adjusted efficiency. They have yet to allow over 70+ points at home this season. Allowing only 65.2 points per game at home this season. As for their offense, they are pretty solid 110th in offensive adjusted efficiency, but they struggle from behind the arc and can't make their free throws.

Concerns: My only worry is that the Shockers will own the pace of this game and it will ruin our chances at the under. Wichita likes to run they are 69th in pace, according to Haslametrics. Meanwhile, North Texas is the 3rd slowest team in the country. The Mean Green will be the slowest team Wichita has seen this season at home. They have scored less than 65 against faster teams, so they do not always own the tempo even on their own home court. 

The Pick: Under 132.5 Get These Odds & Sign Up Bonus @ Bovada

Additional Information

If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball the ones I have mentioned above are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.

Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. Trust the process. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.

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