#24 SMU vs. #6 Duke Picks and Predictions: Ranked ACC Battle

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Last Update: Fri Jan 09, 2026, 5:08 pm ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

Back the Johnnies early against Duke in this Sweet 16 matchup - Duke St. John's Picks

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The No. 6 Duke Blue Devils look to remain perfect in ACC play when they host a ranked opponent this weekend. The No. 24 SMU Mustangs are coming off a loss to Clemson on the road by just four points, where they covered the spread by sneaking through the back door. However prior to that they took down the North Carolina Tar Heels by 14 as short home favorites. Do they have what it takes to take down the Dukies at Cameron Indoor Arena? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out.

Best Bet: SMU/Duke Over 155.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

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#24 SMU Mustangs vs. #6 Duke Blue Devils NCAA Basketball Insights

Can Jon Scheyer and Duke win this tough ACC battle against SMU at home? SMU Duke Picks

Can Jon Scheyer and Duke win this tough ACC battle against SMU at home?

SMU has only lost to teams in the top 50 so far this year. They dropped one to Vanderbilt on the road in early December, but that Commodores team looks really good. Two games later, they lost to LSU by 12 on a neutral site, which is one they might be wishing they had back at the end of the season. However, they went on to string together three wins including beating the Tar Heels before losing to Clemson. Can they pick themselves up after staying on the East Coast?

Duke has been near perfect all year long, but it hasn't come without a few scares. While Duke started off the season covering six straight spreads, they have covered just twice in their last nine games, making them 8-7 against the spread this year. They aren't looking ahead to anything and should realize that this would be a crucial win, considering this is their only meeting with the Mustangs this season. Do they have what it takes to win and cover at home?

Matchup Information – SMU vs. Duke – January 10

  • Venue & Location: Cameron Indoor Stadium (Durham, NC)
  • Date: Saturday, January 10, 2025
  • Kick Off: 2:00 p.m. Eastern
  • Broadcast: ESPN

SMU vs. Duke Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 9, 2025 at 4:00 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.

Spread

  • SMU +11.5 (-110)
  • Duke -11.5 (-110)

Moneyline

  • SMU +660
  • Duke -1050

Total

  • Over 155.5 (-118)
  • Under 155.5 (-102)

While normally the Dukies are a slower, more controlled team, they have not been afraid to run. Duke has seen at least 70 possessions in five straight games, especially when playing speedy opponents. SMU certainly qualifies as such.

#24 SMU vs. #6 Duke NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions

Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs with 20.6 points per game and 7.1 assists - SMU Duke Picks

Boopie Miller leads the Mustangs with 20.6 points per game and 7.1 assists

SMU vs. Duke Prediction: Duke Wins and Covers, Over 155.5

Best Bet: SMU/Duke Over 155.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook

My alternative to the full game over would be taking the Blue Devils' team total, but at the time of writing (4:13 p.m. eastern) we do not have lines for that market. I would expect it is listed around 83.5 or 84.5, which would probably still compel me to stick with the full game total. Let me explain.

Duke is going to score. Not doubt about it. There offense is super efficient, they have multiple scorers who can make plays at any level, and SMU's defense isn't all that great. The Blue Devils are top 35 in assist rate and top 40 in 3P Rate, while shooting over 35% from beyond the arc. While the defense is lock down, SMU likes to run and can also score at will.

The Mustangs offense is top 120 in terms of pace, and they take great care of the ball and crash the offensive glass. Defensively, I do not see them slowing down the Blue Devils, but there should be enough possessions in this game to get us over the total. SMU relies heavily on five guys playing over 70% of the team's minutes. With some tired legs, I do not see them being able to stop Duke from scoring at will in their own gym.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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