South Carolina vs. UCLA Women’s National Championship Prediction & Picks: Who Will Cut Down the Nets in Phoenix?

After going into the women's Final Four as the least heralded of the four semifinalists, South Carolina stands 40 minutes away and a win vs. UCLA from a fourth national championship under Dawn Staley.

Ahead of the action in Phoenix, Lucky Rebel and other March Madness betting sites saw UConn, the top overall seed in the tournament, as a heavy favorite, ahead of Texas, UCLA, and South Carolina.

The Huskies were handily favored to dispatch the Gamecocks in Friday's first semifinal showdown, but their quest for a 40-0 season came crashing down courtesy of a dominant defensive display by South Carolina, who trailed by two at halftime but outscored UConn 38-22 in the second half of a stunning 62-48 win.

While South Carolina spoiled a No. 1 (UConn) vs. No. 2 (UCLA) matchup, the Bruins spoiled an all-SEC championship clash as they shut down Texas in a 51-44 win.

The win over the Longhorns, who were hurt by a nightmare night for Madison Booker (3 of 23 FG, six points, zero assists), puts UCLA within a win of its first NCAA Division I title.

While the antics of UConn coach Geno Auriemma at the end of his team's loss on Friday have taken some of the spotlight away from today's title tilt at Mortgage Matchup Center, the focus needs should be on this matchup. Over the last decade, no program can match the Gamecocks' success. And on the other side are the Bruins, who reached their first Final Four last season and have arguably been the best team in the country this season.

Which team will cut down the nets this afternoon? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, South Carolina, not UCLA, is favored.

South Carolina vs. UCLA TLDR

The Bruins have arguably been the best team in the country this season, but the Gamecocks will be the best team when it matters most.

South Carolina vs. UCLA Matchup Information

• Matchup: South Carolina vs. UCLA – 2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Championship Game
• Location (Venue): Phoenix, Arizona (Mortgage Matchup Center)
• Date: Sunday, April 5, 2026
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

South Carolina vs. UCLA Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, April 4, 2026, at 11:40 p.m. ET. 

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Tale of the Tape: South Carolina vs. UCLA

South Carolina vs. UCLA Prediction and Analysis

Does the adage that defense wins championships always ring true? It doesn't. However, it often plays a pivotal role in who cuts down the nets at the end of March Madness (both men's and women's), and this year is another example.

All four women's Final Four participants made it to Phoenix on the back of strong defensive performances. None of them allowed more than 58 points in Elite Eight wins. The defensive excellence continued in Friday's games, both of which were wars of attrition that saw the four teams combine to make 34.5% (78 of 226) of their shots from the field, including just 28.6% (14 of 49) from three.

Should we expect more of the same for South Carolina vs. UCLA? The Gamecocks and Bruins are both in the top 10 nationally in scoring and three-point shooting and in the top five in field-goal percentage, so both are certainly capable of an offensive explosion.

But based on what we have seen from both teams throughout the tournament, another defensive duel is likely.

Who is the likeliest winner if things do play out that way? Both teams have been exceptional against elite competition. Counting March Madness wins, the Bruins are 15-1 against ranked foes this season, while the Gamecocks are 14-3.

If you look at what the two teams have done against notable common opponents this season (Duke, Oklahoma, and Texas), the edge arguably lies with UCLA.

But as impressive as the Bruins were against the Longhorns, I find it rather difficult to bet against a Dawn Staley-coached team in this moment, especially after how things played out on this stage last April. Don't expect a second straight stumble at the final hurdle for the Gamecocks.

South Carolina vs. UCLA Picks

South Carolina -4 (-113 at Lucky Rebel)

First Half Under 60.5 (-120)

The last four national championship games have been decided by 15, 17, 12, and 23 points, and while I don't see UCLA being on the receiving end of a blowout, I don't see the tussle for the trophy coming down to the last possession or two, even though Bart Torvik's women's national championship game projections see a razor-thin margin (a 70-69 UCLA win).

I also don't see the game approaching that number of points, but with the prospect of late free throws and baskets in mind, I feel far better going for the first half under than I do the under for the full game.

Naturally, this means that the score will likely be 45-40 at halftime and 87-80 at the end, but after getting burned by my offensive optimism in these last few rounds, I see no other solution than to give up and give in with taking the only under you will see from me for months.

Bet on Women's March Madness at Lucky Rebel

These days, all of the best March Madness betting sites have both men's and women's March Madness odds.

If you are looking for the best sites for NCAA tournament betting in 2026, look no further than Lucky Rebel and BetOnline.

Throughout the season, both of these books have had women's March Madness futures odds, as well as odds for many games. And for the tournament, you can find both futures odds and odds for every game at both Lucky Rebel and BetOnline.

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