#24 USC vs. #2 Michigan Picks and Predictions: Friday College Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Jan 02, 2026, 10:45 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two Big Ten basketball teams meet in Ann Arbor tonight for a top 25 showdown in the new year. The No. 24 USC Trojans and Eric Musselman are a long way from home, as they face the No. 2 Michigan Wolverines on the road tonight. Things don't get easier, as the team from Southern Cal has to stick around in the Great Lakes State through the weekend for their next game Monday in East Lansing. Will the Trojans be ready to take on arguably the most dangerous team in college basketball? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out.
Best Bet: Michigan -22.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#24 USC Trojans vs. #2 Michigan Wolverines NCAA Basketball Insights
Eric Musselman and the Trojans are off to a 12-1 start this season after winning the Maui Invitational
Michigan has been perfect all year long, and USC is nearly right behind them. The Trojans are 12-1 this season, but have lost in conference play already, losing to Washington at home a few games ago. But they did beat Oregon on the road to sit at 1-1 in Big Ten play. Since their only loss this season, USC has won four straight games, but they have yet to face a team inside the top 40 on Bart Torvik. Michigan leads most advanced analytic websites.
Michigan is 12-0, beating Rutgers and Maryland in Big Ten games. They have ranked wins over Auburn and Gonzaga, and have scored triple digits in three straight and six of their last seven overall. Will they be able to keep it up against the Trojans at home coming off a break? Or do we finally see this Michigan team look a little sluggish?
Matchup Information – USC vs. Michigan – January 2
- Venue & Location: Crisler Center (Ann Arbor, MI)
- Date: Friday, January 2, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Peacock
USC vs. Michigan Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 2, 2025 at 10:08 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- USC +22.5 (-103)
- Michigan -22.5 (-118)
Total
- Over 172 (-109)
- Under 172 (-111)
I don't think this Wolverines' team has "sluggish" in their DNA. Despite two close calls early in the season, Michigan has won every game, they've covered eight of 12 spreads this year, and seven of their last eight. This team is cruising, and at home, I'm not sure they'll be able to be slowed down.
#24 USC vs. #2 Michigan NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Can Michigan stay perfect with another win at home?
USC vs. Michigan Prediction: Michigan Wins and Covers, Over 172
Best Bet: Michigan -22.5 (-118) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
USC has a bit of a Michigan Tour the next few days. They play the Wolverines tonight, and then they go to East Lansing to take on the No. 9 ranked Spartans on Monday. Perhaps they are looking ahead? Either way, I don't think the Trojans cover both games. If this bet loses, and the Spartans fail to beat Nebraska tonight, I will likely take Michigan State on the spread for two units to get our coin back on Monday. But that's a full 60 minute basketball game away, and I have plenty of faith in the Wolverines.
They are fast, aggressive, and dominate on both sides of the basketball. The one spread they failed to cover in their last eight was by 19.5 on the road in Maryland. They beat the Terps by 18. This team has been over performing all year long (aside from games two and three), and USC is not even close to as battle tested. While the Trojans have played a top 60 schedule, Michigan has played the fourth toughest in the country.
They are No. 5 in pace, lead the country in eFG% on both sides of the ball, and are top 50 rebounding on both ends. They rank No. 16 in FT Rate defense and are top 100 on offense, while ranking top 110 in 3P Rate, shooting over 38% at home (top 30). Defensively, Michigan leads the country in 2P% (offense too) and are top 36 in 3P% defense. USC runs plenty, giving us tons of possessions to cover this number, but their defense will not be able to slow Michigan down.
Laying 20+ points in a ranked conference game doesn't happen very often, but I think the spread is this large for a reason.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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