Taylen Green is a dual threat QB for the Razorbacks. He clears this line by 10 yards on average every game, and has done so in 5/8 games this season. In fact, every time he's cleared this line, he's had 60+ yards on the ground. However, he's facing the Ole Miss defense. Let's discuss.
First off, Green has been sacked 3 times in every game, besides their opener, and last weekend against Mississippi State. He was also sacked just once against Tennessee, but the Vols still contained the elite runner. Here is how Green has done against very good defensive fronts, and keep in mind, all of these games were in Fayetteville.
Texas A&M: 13 carries for 6 yards, sacked 3 times
Tennessee: 9 carries for -5 yards, sacked once
LSU: 6 carries for -10 yards, sacked 3 times
He's had less than 10 carries in his last 3 games, and I expect him to have more success throwing the ball Saturday. Ole Miss is also one of the best rushing fronts in the entire country. The Rebels rank 3rd in rushing yards allowed per game, 2nd in yards per attempt, and 2nd in sacks per game.
Ole Miss gets to the QB over 4 times per game and are coming off a game with 10 sacks. This D-Line will be able to contain Green, sack him for negative yardage, and force him to keep up through the air.
I wouldn't mind laddering this, because when Ellison clears this line, he really clears it. He's only done so in 3/8 games this season, but he's gone for 100+ in each of those games. Now, in a two back system, this is a little iffy, but coming off a game with 29 carries, Ellison is the clear RB1 for the Hoosiers.
Michigan State only allows 145 rushing yards per game and 4.1 per attempt, but Justice runs for over 6 per carry and Michigan State has had trouble containing dynamic running backs.
Treshaun Ward and Jordan James both ran for 100+ yards, while Kaleb Johnson also had 98 on the ground against the Spartans. I think Indiana's offense comes to play, leading to tons of touches for the running back committee.
Check out our #13 Indiana vs Michigan State Preview!
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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