As always, line shop. This is available at 83.5 on the market and I played it as such. This line is far too low against this Wake Forest secondary.
Restrepo leads the team in catches, receiving yards and TDs, averaging 5.5 catches for 93.4 yards and a TD per game. He's cleared this line in 6/10 games, including 100+ in 5 of those contests, and had 78 on 4 catches last time out. Miami is coming off a bye week, and likely need an ACC Championship in order to make the CFP. This is the perfect time to unleash their offense on a much inferior Wake Forest team.
The Demon Deacons are 132nd (out of 134) in passing yards allowed, giving up nearly 300 per game. With Cam Ward's prop lsited at 355, there should be tons of yards to go around. Restrepo has has very explosive games, especially against teams with very bad secondaries.
Restrepo vs Bad Secondaries
South Florida (129th): 6-99-1, Long 28
Louisville (99th): 7-101-1, Long 63
Florida (93rd): 7-112-1, Long 40
California (85th): 7-163, Long 77
Georgia Tech (75th): 4-78-1, Long 38
Duke (40th): 8-146-3, Long 66
Need I say more? This is a 2 Unit play for me at 83.5, it would just be a 1U at 94.5.
Jalon Daniels averages just under this number on 8 carries per game this season, but over the last 3 weeks, he's seen 10+ carries in each contest. This is a number he's only cleared 4 times this season, but he's done so in 3 of his L4 games, and has used his legs against very good teams, including 35 rushing yards against Illinois.
Colorado has trouble containing mobile QBs. Cam Miller, Sawyer Robertson and KJ Jefferson all ran for 76+ yards and a TD against the Buffaloes, including the first two being their team's leading rusher in that game. Most QBs have a 20+ yard rush against the Buffaloes, meaning Daniels could break off a big one.
With much of the focus being on stopping Devin Neal in the rush game, an already bad Colorado defense could forget about Daniels. The Jayhawks do a great job of protecting him, giving up less than a sack per game at home, ranking 11th in the country. An upset could be brewing in Arrowhead, and it starts with Daniels utilizing his legs to make some plays.
For my full analysis and my other pick in this game, check out my article below!
I'll admit, I took a very chalky two team parlay in this game, but we are getting a good price in my opinion.
If anyone is scoring for the Black Knights, it's Daily. He leads the team in carries, rushing yards and rushing TDs with 21, the next guy up has 9. He has a 2+ rushing TDs in 8/9 games this season, with 3+ in 4 of those games as well. Daily has 11 rushing TDs over the past 3 weeks, and even against a good Notre Dame defense, he's the only guy I see scoring for Army.
As for Riley Leonard, he is fine making plays with his legs. He is 2nd on the team in carries and rushing yards behind Jeremiyah Love, but does have him beat 13-12 in rushing TDs. Leonard has a rushing TD in 8/10 games this season, including 2+ four separate times, and he did not find the end zone last week against Virginia. Give me the 6'4″ big body of Leonard to stumble his way for six.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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