Must Win for FSU? SMU at Florida State Expert Picks (9/7)

Monday Night Football is back! We get the college version on September 7th. SMU will travel to Tallahassee to take on Florida State in a pivotal ACC Matchup. A lot of people feel like SMU is good enough to get back to the ACC Title game like they did 2 years ago while this seems like a make or break year for Mike Norvell and FSU. A lot on the line for both teams and we should have a heck of a matchup on Monday night.

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NCAA Football Expert Insights: SMU vs Florida State

This will be the third season SMU will be a member of the ACC and they have proven to be a legit contender in each of their first two. In the first year, they lost to Clemson in the ACC Championship game, but still made the College Football Playoff. Last season, if they would of beaten Cal as a 13-point favorite in the final game of the regular season they would have made the ACC Title game again. This year they have aspirations of getting to Charlotte again. They do avoid Miami on the schedule so their toughest conference games will be at Louisville and this road game at Florida State.

Meanwhile, things have gone in the wrong direction for Florida State the last two seasons. After going 13-1 in 2023 they followed that up with a 2-10 season and a 5-7 season last year. Most thought Mike Norvell would be gone, but he is back and really needing a good season to keep his job. With roadtrips to Alabama, Louisville, Miami and Pitt and home games against SMU, Virginia, Clemson, and Florida they have one of the toughest schedules in the ACC.

This really is such an important games for both teams. Not only is it crushing to start the season 0-1, but to go 0-1 in conference play as well really stings.

Matchup Information – SMU vs Florida State – September 7

• Venue & Location: Doak Campbell Stadium ( Tallahassee, FL)
• Date: Sunday, September 7, 2026
• Kick Off: 7:30 p.m. Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

SMU vs Florida State Betting Odds

Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 4:45 p.m. eastern.

Spread

• SMU -3 (-105)
• Florida State +3 (-115)

Moneyline

• SMU -147
• FSU +127

Total

• Over 53 (-107)
• Under 53 (-113)

SMU Mustangs vs Florida State Seminoles: NCAA Football Expert Picks

SMU vs Florida State Prediction: Florida State Win and Cover, Under 53.5

Best Bet: Florida State +3 (-105) & ML (+130) BetOnline

On paper SMU is the better team. Their QB Kevin Jennings is entering his 4th season and the Mustangs are expecting big things. On the line of scrimmage they should be solid and on defense they normally are very good as well. It makes sense why they are the favorites on the road.

However, from a betting standpoint this game is so fascinating. The summer line on this game was SMU favored by 1.5 points and now SMU is a 3-point favorite in the game. Well, why is the fascinating? FSU played a Week 0 game against New Mexico State. The Seminoles closed as a 32-point favorite in the game. New Mexico State was hanging around a majority of that game through 3 quarters and Florida State looked absolutely awful. Meanwhile, SMU was at home chillin and watching the game.

The line moved 1.5 points because one team played and the other team didn't. If FSU didn't play a Week 0 game the line would still be SMU -1.5. Maybe FSU is just going to be terrible again this year, but also one of the biggest mistakes is overreacting to Week 0. The fact that we're now getting a key number with Florida State in this game at +3, I have to bet that and the ML.

Maybe Florida State turns out to be terrible this season and the Week 0 game was not a fluke, but maybe SMU is bad too? Keep in mind the Noles got a huge Week 1 win vs Bama last year and I think they can do it again.

 

no place like Doak 🏡 #NoleFamily pic.twitter.com/WI1unYVcIo

— FSU Football (@FSUFootball) September 2, 2026

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