A Side and Total for Friday’s Pigskin: NCAA Football Expert Picks for 9/4

Nate Hornung

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Fri Sep 04, 2026, 6:00 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

John Mateer is looking to lead the Sooners back to the College Football Playoff, and maybe even an SEC Championship Game - NCAA Football Expert Picks

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UTEP Miners logo
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Oklahoma Sooners logo

UTEP Miners

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Oklahoma Sooners

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Friday Night's college football slate brings us eight contests to bet on, although only one falls within a single touchdown spread. Nevertheless, our analysts dug into the betting board and found a few of their favorite spots to wager on. Read about our NCAA Football expert picks for Friday here, and see if you will be tailing or fading our analysts.

Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.

NCAA Football Friday's Predictions – September 4

UTEP vs. #10 Oklahoma NCAA Football Picks

Brent Venables has his Oklahoma Sooner's defense ready to go early on in the year, every single season - NCAA Football Expert Picks

Brent Venables has his Oklahoma Sooner's defense ready to go early on in the year, every single season

Best Bet: Oklahoma -41.5 (-105) BetOnline

Back the Sooners at home in Week 1, despite this being a VERY large number. Now, originally, I wanted to bet UTEP's Team Total under, but it was listed at under 3.5 for -172. That's way too much juice for something that could go wrong on one tipped pass. Instead, I'll just lay the points, as I expect the Sooner's offense to be rolling, and we know their defense is going to be incredible.

In 2023 against Arkansas State in Week 1, Oklahoma won 73-0, giving up just 208 yards of offense. The situation was the same in 2024, beating Temple 51-3, forcing six turnovers and allowing less than 200 yards of offense. Finally, last season, they beat Illinois State 35-3, allowing just 151 total yards of offense. Brent Venables has his defenses ready to go early, and in preparation for the Wolverines next week, they will give their all.

UTEP is slated to be one of the worst teams in the Mountain West conference, and it won't surprise me if they are shutout in this game. Give me a 49-3 Sooners win to cover the spread.

#7 Miami vs. Stanford NCAA Football Picks

Malachi Toney and Miami have to travel across the country for their season opener this weekend - NCAA Football Expert Picks

Malachi Toney and Miami have to travel across the country for their season opener this weekend

Best Bet: Miami/Stanford Under 48.5 (-120) BetOnline

Let's talk about why I love this game to stay under on Friday night in California. Don't get it twisted, we are going to see points, but I'm not sure how much are going to come from the home sideline. Check out my full game piece here, but originally I wanted to back Stanford's team total under. However it is sitting in "no man's land" at 11.5, so instead I'll back the full game under. They are coming off a big, emotional win in Week 0, where they covered on a defensive touchdown in the final minutes.

That was against Hawaii. Now they face a top 10 team in the country, one who should run the ACC with ease, and who are trying to get back to the National Championship after losing last year. The Hurricanes should come out and spank the Cardinal, but not without it staying under. Stanford gave up a ton of second half points to the Rainbow Warriors. Look for them to make several defensive adjustments to try and contain the Canes.

Like I said, I do not expect two touchdowns from the hosts, which should make it much easier to stay under the total. Give me Miami to cover in a big win, but still managing to stay under this total by at least a field goal.

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Nate Hornung
Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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