Wisconsin vs #13 USC: NCAA Football Predictions, Odds & Best Bets (9/28)

Written by: Nate Hornung

Published: Thu Sep 26, 2024, 1:16 pm ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

Woody Marks and the Trojans take on Rutgers tonight

ncaaf

FINAL

Wisconsin Badgers

USC Trojans

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Big Ten football on the West Coast simply feels wrong, but it is giving me Rose Bowl vibes as the Wisconsin Badgers take on the USC Trojans in LA this Saturday afternoon. This will be USC's first home conference matchup since joining the Big Ten, and the Trojans are looking to bounce back after losing to Michigan at the Big House. The 2-1 Trojans are still ranked 13th in the country, and going against a Badgers team without their starting QB should be a relatively easy task.

Wisconsin's new QB, Tyler Van Dyke, went down with an injury early against Alabama. Braedyn Locke came in and was unable to produce much, as the Badgers dropped their first game of the season to the Crimson Tide. Wisconsin is coming out of a bye week, and has had more time to prepare for this matchup, but will it matter much without their QB1?

USC has shown they can compete with the best, knocking off LSU despite losing to Michigan. I think this team will compete in the Big Ten conference, and possible make it into the College Football Playoff. However, they can't do that if they don't win this weekend. Playoff Bids will be at a premium in this conference, as 5-6 CFP caliber teams are likely fighting for 3 spots, 2 after a conference champion is crowned. Can USC find their first Big Ten win? Or will the Badger play spoiler in the City of Angels?

Wisconsin vs USC: Big Ten Meets the West Coast

Can USC find their first conference win?

Miller Moss leads the Trojans against Wisconsin this Saturday

Matchup Information – Wisconsin vs USC

Venue & Location: Memorial Coliseum (Los Angeles, CA)
Date: Saturday, September 28th, 2024
Kick Off: 3:30pm Eastern
Broadcast: CBS

Betting Odds

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Spread

Wisconsin +15.5 (-110)
USC -15.5 (-110)

Money Line

Wisconsin +500
USC -650

Total

Over 51 (-116)
Under 51 (-104)

Wisconsin Take on Trojans in LA

Can Mellusi find some green grass and run over the Trojans on Saturday?

Chez Mellusi has 200 rushing yards on the season

Wisconsin is in for a hell of a matchup. Sure, they are coming off a bye week, but they face a very fired up USC team back at home coming off a loss. The Trojans have yet to win a Big Ten game, and they are certainly hoping to get one on their record this weekend. Taking on a beat up Badger team following their loss should be a great opportunity to instill some confidence in the team going forward. I think Lincoln Riley will set up Moss with some easy completions following his lowest completion percentage of the season against the Wolverines.

Offensive Struggles for USC

Moss threw the ball over 50 times, completing just 55% of his passes for 3 TDs and an interception. He was sacked 4 times as well, as it was a rough day on the field for his entire offense. However, this Wisconsin defense does not compare to Michigan's. Back at home, Moss will be much more comfortable in the pocket and will have ample time to find his receivers and make his throws. He's thrown for nearly 300 yards per game this season, and I expect him to improve his play back at home.

While I expected more from the Trojans defense, Alex Orji did a great job commanding the Michigan offense, and he did enough to get the win. Braedyn Locke is not as capable of a back up as Orji, and the Badgers will certainly miss Van Dyke in this game. I see the Trojans defense having a field day going after the QB and plugging the gaps on runs. USC should force Wisconsin to air it out, and beat them in the secondary, which will be tough trusting a young quarterback's arm in a hostile environment.

Ultimately, I think USC's defense can shut down Wisconsin. The tandem of backs for the Badgers won't gain any rhythm as the Trojan's front 7 should dominate the line of scrimmage on defense. I expect USC's offense to have a huge bounce back game, doing whatever they please against the Badgers. However, I will be putting my money on some props in this matchup.

Wisconsin Badgers vs USC Trojans Best Bets

Branch does not have a touchdown yet this season

Branch has 14 catches for 173 yards this season

Wisconsin vs USC Prediction: USC Wins & Covers, Over 51

Best Bets: Zachariah Branch Over 53.5 Receiving Yards (-112) BetOnline

I think we see points in this game, but from just one side. USC should be good to go offensively, and while their rushing attack should roll with Woody Marks, I think they focus on getting Branch the ball. Their number 1 receiver has not scored a TD yet, and he has openly expressed his frustration. Despite leading the team in receptions and receiving yards, everyone wants to find the end zone. This weekend, I see Lincoln Riley making his WR1 very happy, targeting him plenty, especially in the red zone.

Branch has cleared this line in 2/3 games this year, and it's been both bigger opponents. He's caught 10 passes for 154 yards against Michigan and LSU, as he is clearly the go to guy in those big moments. He had a 42 yard reception against the Wolverines which really opened up things underneath for him as he posted 98 yards on 6 catches. Like I said, I think Riley scripts some easily completions for his QB coming off a loss, and it makes sense to build more chemistry with their top wideout going forward.

We are also sprinkling on him to find the end zone for the first time this season, as I see the Trojans scoring plenty on their own.

Bonus Bets: Zachariah Branch Anytime TD (+100) BetOnline

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Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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