Rivalry Week in the North: Bears vs. Packers — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/11)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Fri Oct 09, 2026, 4:43 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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This week we head to the legendary Lambeau Field for one of the oldest rivalries in all of professional sports; the Green Bay Packers versus the Chicago Bears.
This week's matchup is going to be filled with bad blood, anger and just a general dislike of one another. This rivalry goes deep and it's not just between the two fan bases; these two rosters can't stand each other.
I'm excited, but also terrified. Let's not waste time, let's jump right into this game and breakdown this matchup.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Lambeau Field; Green Bay, Wisconsin
- Date: Sunday, October 11th, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Chicago Bears: Tyson Bagent (2025: n/a)
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (2025: 9-5-1; 225.4 YPG | 23 TD | 6 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Turnaround in Titletown?
The Green Bay Packers escaped last week with their second win of the year and this week they hope to build on that same momentum. Green Bay's played three of their first four games on the road and this week will be just the second time the Packers' have taken the field at Lambeau this season.
The home opener was less than ideal. The Packers gave up 35 points to the Atlanta Falcons in Michael Penix's first start of the season. Love was pressured on 44% of his dropbacks but sacked only once. He's done a great job of getting the ball out quickly and it's helped avoid a ton of sacks.
Love's got the quickest time to throw this year and it's out of necessity. It's why the Packers went out and signed 3 new OL after the Falcons game and while only 2 played last week; their impact was immediate.
Love was pressured on just 1 of his 30 dropbacks, he was hit just twice and the Buccaneers recorded no sacks. The OL had their best game of the year and this week they add the final piece, Kevin Zeitler.
Defensively, the Packers need to be a lot better; but a lot of that has to do with their inability to keep their offense on the field. The Packers rank 31st in time of possession and it's because they can't sustain drives without an OL.
If they can just figure out this OL, it might be turnaround time in Titletown.
Tyson, Caleb or Case?
Ben Johnson has now won three football games this year and he's done it with three different starting QBs. Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent and even Case Keenum have recorded a win for the Chicago Bears this year and it's all because of the man on the sideline; Ben Johnson.
After a statement win over the Philadelphia Eagles on primetime, with Case Keenum under center; the Bears followed up with a 23-12 win over the New York Jets with Tyson Bagent.
Bagent wasn't spectacular, throwing for 268 yards and 1 interception; but the run game was unstoppable. Kyle Monangai ran the ball 30 times, finishing with 146 rush yards (4.9 YPC) and 2 touchdowns on the ground.
Chicago simply dominated the time of possession against the Jets and that could be a huge problem if the Packers' OL issues continue. The Bears had the ball for nearly 43 minutes of their last game and it was all because of Monangai's success on the ground.
This week the Bears will be without Monangai and will have to rely more heavily on D'Andre Swift. Reports have come out today that Caleb's back at practice and his status was officially changed for Sunday's game to 'questionable'.
That a step in the right direction for Caleb, but whether he plays this week remains to be seen.
Sunday's Best Bets
Jordan Love o1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+105) | Lucky Rebel
We're going right back to Jordan Love. Love's cashed this line for us in four straight games now and this week he goes up against a Bears defense that runs a ton of man coverage.
The Bears' rank 27th in yards per play, 27th in pass rush win rate, 18th in pressure rate; but somehow have the 9th most sacks. That feels like a DL due for some regression and with Green Bay's OL trending in the right direction; this feel like the perfect matchup to target.
Love's had 2+ passing touchdowns in every game this year and part of it's because he has to. The Packers' lack of run game is glaring and even more so in the redzone.
Green Bay ranks 1st in pass rate, 3rd in pass rate over expectation and all of their offensive touchdowns have come via the air. Love's got 8 total touchdown passes this year, 7 of them have come in the redzone and he ranks 6th in pass attempts in the redzone this year.
The Bears' tendency to run man coverage also doesn't help. Since he became a starter in 2023, Love's recorded a passer rating of 104.1 against man, he's got 46 touchdown passes and just 6 interceptions.
Love's second among all QBs in touchdown passes versus man since 2023 and it's why he always thrives against Chicago. In 7 career games against Chicago, Love's averaging 217.9 pass yards per game, he's got 13 touchdowns and just 2 interceptions.
If you remove the two games he left injured; he's averaging close to 300 pass yards per game, he's got 13 touchdowns and a passer rating just under 120.
Let Jordan cook.
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