Battle of the Birds on SNF: Ravens vs. Falcons – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/11)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Oct 09, 2026, 3:50 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.5
-115
43
-110u
+155
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-3.0
-120
43
-105o
-170
Sunday Night Football this week features the battle of the birds, as the Baltimore Ravens head to Atlanta to take on the Falcons. As the betting line indicates, Lamar Jackson will not play in this contest, with Zay Flowers status in question as well. He was limited in practice on Friday. Both teams have won two straight games, and will be looking to complete the turkey in front of a national audience. Find out what our experts like in this game by checking out their favorite picks below.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Information
Tyler Huntley is back to leading this Ravens offense on Sunday Night against the Falcons
Michael Penix Jr. has revamped this Falcons offense. They've scored 80 total points in their last two with him as the starter, after losing their first two of the season. This was thought to be a true test for Atlanta, but now things are much easier having to face Tyler Huntley instead. However, you still have to stop the King.
Plus, Cam Jurgens should be making his first start with the Ravens, adding some protection for their back up QB. Because of the quarterback news for Baltimore, they are now a three and a half point underdog on the road, and the total has steamed down five points from 48.5 to 43.5. Let's see how our analysts are betting on this one.
Matchup Information – Baltimore vs. Atlanta – October 11
- Venue & Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta, GA)
- Date: Sunday, October 11, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:20 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Ravens vs. Falcons Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Friday, October 9, 2026 at 3:20 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Ravens +3.5 (-115)
- Falcons -3.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Ravens +149
- Falcons -170
Total
- Over 43.5 (-115)
- Under 43.5 (-105)
Ravens vs. Falcons NFL Analysis and Insights
Atlanta is actually the best rushing defense in the NFL so far, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry, leading the league by over half a yard. That certainly sounds like a unit that can slow down Derrick Henry and force Huntley to beat them with his arm, which will be tough enough, as Atlanta also ranks top five in yards per pass allowed as well.
Either way you look at it, things might be tough for Baltimore on offense. Defensively, I'm not sure I trust the secondary to slow down Penix, who has clearly found his groove. Look for the Falcons to keep it rolling at home on Sunday.
Baltimore Ravens vs. Atlanta Falcons NFL Expert Picks
Bijan Robinson has been running all over opposing defenses since he stepped foot in the league
Best Bet: Falcons Team Total Over 23.5 (-118) BetOnline
The Baltimore Ravens are bottom five in the league in third down conversion rate. I would expect that number to drop significantly with Huntley under center. Plus Atlanta is top 10 in that category defensively. This should lead to plenty of Atlanta stops, Baltimore punts, and time for the Falcons to go down and score. We are not asking for a whole lot with this number.
While this Falcons team does rank second in the NFL in yards per carry, they are also top eight in yards per pass, much thanks to Penix's play. And as I mentioned, they are the top rushing defense at the moment. All of this adds up to a bad showing from Baltimore, and a dominant win for the Falcons.
I've opted for the team total instead of the spread, just in case Henry breaks free for a couple of big touchdown runs. But ultimately, this is a spot where I expect the Falcons to keep their rhythm alive. The offense has put up an average of 40 points per game, 459 yards, and just one total turnover in their last two, along with a 55.5% third down conversion rate.
They might put up 30 in front of their hometown crowd.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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