NFL Divisional Unders Theory: Is There Action Available from the Data?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Sep 30, 2026, 4:10 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
nfl
If you've been following me on Twitter (@Shaggy_Bets), read my stuff at Betting News, or heard me talk on The Morning Spread every weekday at 11:00 a.m. eastern on the BNN, you're probably sick of me saying three specific words. NFL. Divisional. Unders. Yes, I am a bit obsessed with finding an actionable system in the sports betting world, especially in the NFL. But let me put my theory into a somewhat organized article for you to read, and then you can decide if I'm just crazy.
The NFL Divisional Unders Theory
NFL Divisional matchups bring a different kind of energy to the stadium than everyday regular season contests
What's So Special About Divisional Games?
Well for starters, we only get a total of 96 divisional contests in the NFL each season, 12 per quad. Every single year, each team plays the other three in their division twice, once at home, once on the road. The rest of the schedule fluctuates, but the one standard is six divisional games for each team.
These contests are as close as we get to "rivalry" games. Sure, they don't have the same gumption as Ohio State and Michigan, or Notre Dame and USC (for my old school readers), but teams are still more likely to wake up and perform their best in these matchups. Or at least I like to think so. Even if a team has a 6-11 season, if they went 6-0 in their division, you better believe their fanbase will hang that over the heads of the rest of the division.
Why Divisional Unders?
Here's my thinking. These are "rivalry" games, like I explained. They mean more… to the players, the coaches, the fans, the cities. These few contests every year are the chance for ultimate bragging rights over the other three teams in your division. Therefore, you wake up, you bring your best, and you might even be a little bit "scared" to make a mistake. Leading both teams to be more cautious on offense, rather than giving them something cheap.
We also have coaches, players and other front office staff that are VERY familiar with the schemes, tactics, and tendencies of these other teams, both on and off the field. Familiarity makes it easier to combat with good defense, in my opinion.
Now, after one season of data, there isn't anything truly actionable, but here are the raw numbers I have so far.
Can we find action worth betting with our NFL Divisional Unders data?
NFL Divisional Unders Data
All data listed from the 2025-26 season, unless otherwise specified.
NFL Divisional Unders
- Overall: 50-46 (52.08%)
- Primetime: 10-12 (45.45%)
Unders By Division
- AFC North: 7-5 (58.33%)
- AFC South: 6-6 (50%)
- AFC East: 4-8 (33.33%)
- AFC West: 9-3 (75%)
- NFC North: 7-5 (58.33%)
- NFC South: 9-3 (75%)
- NFC East: 3-9 (25%)
- NFC West: 5-7 (41.67%)
Unders By Total
- Closing Total 50 or Over: 4-4 (50%)
- Closing Total Under 40: 9-5 (64.3%)
Unders By Team
Best Unders Teams
- 5-1 to the UNDER: Carolina, Cincinnati, Denver, Kansas City, New Orleans
Best Overs Teams
- 5-1 to the OVER: Los Angeles (Rams), Miami, New York (Giants), Washington
If you blindly bet each AFC West, and NFC South Divisional game to go under, you would've gone 18-6, for a 75% hit rate. On the flip side, if you blindly bet every AFC East and NFC East divisional game to go under, you would've gone 7-17, for a 29.2% hit rate.
Playing more hypotheticals, blindly betting each NFL Divisional Under last year would've lost you some juice, assuming you laid standard -110 juice on each bet. If you found -105, you would've turned a small profit.
So far this season, through three weeks of play, NFL Divisional Unders are 7-6, with both primetime divisional contests staying under the total as well. We have another one Thursday Night in the AFC North.
But how do we turn this into action?
The NFC East is 12-3 to the over in their last 15 divisional matchups
Finding Action in NFL Divisional Totals
Remember how I said the AFC West was a divisional under cash cow last year? Going 9-3 to the under? So far this season, the AFC West is 2-0 to the under, and there's another battle in Las Vegas this weekend. Am I blindly betting the under? Not necessarily, but it is a great jumping off point, knowing this division is 11-3 to the under in their last 14 contests. Last year, NFC East divisional games were 9-3 to the OVER, and so far, OVERS are 3-0 amongst teams from that division. There could be something there, but we'll have to wait until Week 5 to find out.
But one trend I will absolutely be betting, is under on divisional games with a total below 40. As I stated above, in 14 divisional battles last year with a total that closed below 40, nine still stayed under the total. Feed me a 64% hit rate every day of the week, which is why we took the under on Thursday Night between the Steelers and Browns, as the total is listed at 38.5.
This isn't the last you'll hear me talk about NFL Divisional Unders, but hopefully I've made it clear why I think the way I do.
What About Home Divisional Underdogs?
Also something I am tracking. Last year, betting every home underdog in a divisional contest would have gone 20-18, good for a 52.63% hit rate, just over our break even point at -110 odds. However, 14 of those teams won outright. So far this season, home divisional dogs are 3-2 against the spread, with all three winning straight up as well.
Over the last two full seasons, and so far this year, home divisional underdogs are now 43-37 against the spread in the last 80 matchups, good for a 53.8% hit rate, and 26 outright wins.
The more you know…
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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