Monday Night Football: Eagles vs. Bears — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/28)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Sep 28, 2026, 2:48 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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42.0
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Time to cap off Week 3 with Monday Night Football in the Windy City. The Chicago Bears will host the Philadelphia Eagles tonight at Soldier Field; unfortunately without their starting QB.
Let's jump right into this one.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Soldier Field; Chicago, Illinois
- Date: Monday, September 28th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (2025: 11-5; 201.5 YPG | 25 TD | 6 INT)
- Chicago Bears: Case Keenum (2025: n/a)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Who's playing QB?
Case Keenum will get the start for the Bears tonight, the team's third string QB. After Tyson Bagent suffered a concussion at the end of last week's game, his status remained up in the air all week. Despite now possibly clearing concussion protocol; Keenum will get the start.
Keenum hasn't started an NFL game since 2023 and that was while he was with the Houston Texans. He started two games for the Texans in December of 2023, finished with a total of 291 passing yards, 1 touchdown and 3 interceptions.
In his last 10 starts, Keenum's averaging 161.4 passing yards, he's got 9 touchdown passes and 9 interceptions. He's also only started 4 games in the last 6 years and hasn't played a down of football since 2023. That's going to be a problem for Chicago.
The Bears offense is normally run by a dynamic Caleb Williams that's capable of extending plays, getting out of the pocket, making throws on the run and making things happen with his legs. That's definitely not the case with the 38-year old Keenum.
Couple this with a really bad Bears defense and you can see the issues. The Bears' DL continues to be a problem and despite recording 4 sacks through two games; the underlying metrics look awful.
Chicago's DL is generating just a 9% pressure rate, a 6.9% pass rush win rate and they've been incredibly soft against the run.
Philly, Philly
The Philadelphia Eagles have won back to back games to start the year, both decided by less than a touchdown and both to much lesser teams. In Week 1 the Eagles jumped out to a 14-3 lead on the Commanders and then watched as the game came down to a missed two point conversion from Washington.
In Week 2, the Eagles went toe to toe with the Titans; eventually leaving Tennessee with the 24-20 win. That game came down to the Eagles final offensive drive.
With the ball at his own 35-yard line, down 3; Jalen Hurts marched his team down 65 yards and scored the game winning touchdown with 14 seconds left in the game. Hurts finished the game with 264 yards through the air, 2 touchdown passes and 2 interceptions.
The Eagles' defense giving up 20 points to the Titans was the bigger surprise. Philadelphia held Tennessee to just 291 yards of total offense, but a couple of short fields gifted the Titans some points. This defense is good and it all starts on the defensive line.
The Eagles DL are 7th in pressure rate this year, but they've got just 3 sacks to show for it. They've gone up against two mobile QBs, two guys more than capable of moving around in the pocket and avoiding the sack. This week this play Case Keenum.
This feels like a spot where the underlying stats are pointing us towards some positive regression from this DL and it results its a few more sacks.
Monday Night's Best Bets
Devonta Smith o69.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
This Bears' secondary has been bad this year and outside of last week's rainy weather, they've been getting beat; a lot. This week it's Devonta Smith's turn.
Smith caught 10 of his 13 targets last week for 117 yards and a touchdown. He was great last week and the one thing he's done a lot of this year is beat man coverage.
Chicago's running man at the 2nd highest rate in the league through two weeks and that's right in line with what they did last year. Smith's averaging 4.5 yards per route run against man coverage this year, he's winning 40% of his routes against man and finished top-20 against man last year.
This year Smith's seeing a 29% target share and 39% first read target share. He's a center piece of this pass game and against this Bears' secondary tonight that's an advantage you have to press.
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