Thursday Night AFC North Showdown: Steelers vs. Browns – NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/1)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Wed Sep 30, 2026, 2:45 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
-115
38.5
-110u
-145
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-115
37
-110o
+130
Thursday Night Football is already appraoching our screens, and here's the deal. We're now beginning Week 4 of the NFL season. Primetime games to kick off each week haven't always been that exciting, and that may be the case in this one. However, we get an AFC North Divisional rivalry game at the Dawg Pound, with both teams coming off a positive week. The Pittsburgh Steelers and Aaron Rodgers head into Ohio to take on the Cleveland Browns, who have somehow stumbled their way into two straight wins. Can they make it a turkey on Thursday as a home divisional underdog? Find out with our expert picks below.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns Game Information
Aaron Rodgers and the Steelers just scored 30 points against Cincinnati, can they do it again in this divisional game?
These offenses stink, I'll be the one to say it. I am not impressed with 20 points against Atlanta at home, and even 30 against the Bengals doesn't give me faith. For starters, your 40 year old quarterback only managed three points on the road against New England, a capable defense. And now he heads into Cleveland to take on the Browns. Even without Myles Garrett, this defense is more than serviceable and wants nothing more than to rip Rodgers' head clean off his body.
These divisional games mean something more. Especially when the calendar turns to October and the Browns aren't completely out of the running. Like I said, they have won two in a row in September. The last time they had two wins in the opening month was 2023, the last time they did so in a row in September? 2021.
Should Browns fans have faith going into Thursday Night? With both teams coming off wins, I want nothing more than to root against their offenses to perform.
Matchup Information – Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland – October 1
- Venue & Location: Huntington Bank Field (Cleveland, OH)
- Date: Thursday, October 1, 2026
- Kick Off: 8:15 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: Prime Video
Steelers vs. Browns Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of BetOnline as of Wednesday, September 30, 2026 at 2:15 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Steelers -3 (-103)
- Browns +3 (-117)
Moneyline
- Steelers -150
- Browns +130
Total
- Over 38.5 (-110)
- Under 38.5 (-110)
Steelers vs. Browns NFL Analysis and Insights
I am targeting NFL Divisional Unders this season, and I'll have a spot for you to read about them shortly. But this is an auto-bet for me for several different reasons. I have no faith in Rodgers and the Steelers offense scoring on the road against a capable defense. I also don't think the Browns are all that great, lucking themselves into wins over two NFC South teams… the worst division in football. When they played a team with a pulse (Jacksonville), we saw their true colors.
Do I think the Steelers have a pulse? Not at all. But they'll wake up for this rivalry game, and in my book, that's going to give us a low scoring battle.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns NFL Expert Picks
Judkins leads the Browns with 42 carries for 124 yards, but does not have a rushing touchdown this year
Best Bet: Steelers/Browns Under 38.5 (-110) BetOnline
It's low, it's disgusting, it's under 40 total points, but we are still taking the under on Thursday Night Football in Cleveland. I booked this as soon as it dropped, and honestly couldn't do it quick enough. Let me explain.
For starters, AFC North Divisional Unders were 7-5 last season. Pittsburgh was 3-3, while the Browns were 4-2, but both contests between the two franchises stayed under their total. Which, by the way, was less than 40 each time.
Yes, personnel has changed, but we saw a 23-9 Steelers' win in Ohio last season, with a 38 point total. In Week 17, they lowered it to 34, but it didn't matter, as the two combined for 19 points. Don't get it twisted, these teams produce stinkers. Furthermore, there were 14 NFL Divisional games last season that closed with a total lower than 40 points. Those contests went 9-5 to the under, cashing in over 64% of games. Sure, it's not a huge sample size, but it's enough for me to pull the trigger on this primetime, divisional matchup.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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