Mountain Men in the Bay: Broncos vs. 49ers — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/4)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 4:56 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+3.0
-120
48
-110u
+128
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-2.0
-120
48
-110o
-140
The Denver Broncos have won back to back games and this week they head to the Bay to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers are one of the four undefeated teams remaining in the NFL and this week the Broncos will look to put that to the test.
With the total set between 47/48, it's safe to assume we're going to see some points in this one. We've got a lot to discuss, let's jump right into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Levi's Stadium; Santa Clara, California
- Date: Sunday, October 4th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (2025: 14-3; 231.2 YPG | 25 TD | 11 INT)
- San Francisco 49ers: Brock Purdy (2025: 7-3; 240.8 YPG | 20 TD | 10 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Mountain Men
After losing their season opener, the Denver Broncos have won back to back games; both games being against pretty good opponents. The Broncos beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 2, holding that high powered Liam Coen offense to just 13 total points.
They then followed that up with a 30-26 win on primetime against Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. The Broncos would force Stafford into 2 interceptions last week, one of which went back the other way for six.
The Broncos defense has made the big play multiple times already this year, but they've also given up a ton of points and a lot of yards. Denver's giving up the 4th most total yards per game this year (380.7), they rank 17th in points allowed (23.3) and 27th in opponent first downs.
The defense has allowed 26+ points in two of the team's three games and that's why we're seeing a total as high as 48. Offensively, the Broncos' have been very middle of the pack.
The team ranks 21st in points per game (20.0), 31st in rush yards per game and 25th in first downs per game. The offense has trouble staying on the field and the defense can't get off the field. It's a recipe for disaster, but so far it's worked for the Broncos.
Who's Left?
The San Francisco 49ers look great this year. They've won all three of their games and so far this year, it feels like their only real battle has been with the health of their players. The Niners' have a laundry list of injuries right now, so many in fact the the team's running of IR spots.
The 49ers will be without star DE, Nick Bosa for at least a few weeks due to a hamstring injury. The team could potentially be missing 4 other DL, with both James Thompson and Keion White not practicing on Thursday and Mykel Williams yet to play this year.
In addition to the most recent injuries, San Francisco's already missing Alfred Collins (patellar tendon), Sam Okuayinonu (foot) and C.J. West; all three already on IR. This defensive line was having issues prior to the injuries, now it's looking dire.
Last week against the Cardinals, the 49ers gave up 30 points, 365 total yards of offense and allowed Arizona to finish with nearly double the time of possession. They still won the game 36-30 because Brock Purdy put the team on his back.
Purdy finished with 297 yards through the air, 4 touchdown passes and a passer rating of 133.8. He threw 4 touchdowns to 3 different receivers and now he's thrown touchdowns to 5 different receivers in just three weeks.
Purdy's averaging 263.0 yards per game, he's got 9 touchdown passes, 1 interception and he's completing 72% of his passes. Purdy has been flawless, but this defense needs to be better.
Last week Purdy had the ball for half the time his counterpart, Jacoby Brissett, did. He finished with more passing yards, more touchdown passes and he won the game.
Sunday's Best Bets
Jaylen Waddle o57.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
After he burned us last week, I'm ready to go back. Waddle's got a great matchup this week against a zone heavy scheme in the 49ers and Bo Nix should have plenty of time in the pocket.
Last week with this same list of injuries, the 49ers watched as Brissett torched them for just under 300 yards and 2 touchdowns. Brissett lead all QBs last week in dropbacks from a clean pocket and that's because the 49ers just couldn't generate pressure.
Since 2024, Nix has been elite from a clean pocket. He's completing 72% of his passes from a clean pocket, with 49 touchdowns, 14 interceptions and a passer rating of 102.1.
This season from a clean pocket, his favorite receiver has been Jaylen Waddle.
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