Can the Pack Bounce Back in Florida: Packers vs. Buccaneers — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/4)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 12:47 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
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Moneyline
-3.5
100
39.5
-105u
-180
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+3.5
-110
39
-110o
+161
The Green Bay Packers head to Florida this week to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Both teams have struggled out the gate and the Buccaneers will be without Baker Mayfield for at least the next three weeks.
Both teams are desperate for a win this week and sometimes desperation can bring out about the best in these guys.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: Raymond James Stadium; Tampa Bay, Florida
- Date: Sunday, October 4th, 2026
- Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love (2025: 9-5-1; 225.4 YPG | 23 TD | 6 INT)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jalon Daniels (2025: n/a)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Who's playing QB?
Last week it was the 38-year old Case Keenum and the Chicago Bears we had questions about. This week's it's the Buccaneers and their 23-year old rookie, Jalon Daniels.
Daniels played six years at Kansas, starting 45 games for the Jayhawks and finishing with 9,282 pass yards, 67 touchdowns and 31 interceptions. Daniels played limited snaps in 3 of the Buccaneers preseason games, finishing with 239 pass yards, 1 touchdown and a 61% completion rate.
The Buccaneers were struggling with Baker under center, averaging just 20.7 points and 279.3 yards of total offense per game. The team ranks 30th in redzone efficiency, converting just 30% of their redzone trips into touchdowns.
Defensively, the Buccaneers need be better. The defense ranks 23rd in points allowed, allowing 26.3 points per game through three weeks; but somehow give up the 6th fewest total yards per game.
Tampa hasn't been able to generate a pass rush and thats been a huge issue for the team. Through three games, the Buccaneers are generating a 7.4% pressure rate, 6.7% pass rush win rate and have come away with 4 sacks. The actual sack number isn't that bad, but the underlying metrics really are.
If you can't generate pressure in this league, your defense is usually in for a long night. That usually the case, but against this Green Bay front; anything can happen.
Ghost Lineman
The biggest story surrounding the Green Bay Packers this year is (unfortunately) about how bad their offensive line has been. The Packers' offensive line ranks last in pass block efficiency, pass block win rate, pressures allowed and pass blocking grade (via PFF).
Green Bay's run game is non-existent, ranking dead last in yards per game, yards per carry and 30th in run blocking grade. The offense has come from one place and that's Jordan Love.
Love's been pressured on 44% of his dropbacks this year, he's got the shortest time to throw in the league (2.45 seconds) and he leads the NFL in pass attempts with less than 2.5 seconds in the pocket. It's gotten so ugly in Green Bay, the team went and signed three veteran lineman this very week.
Despite the poor OL play and non-existent run game; Love's averaging 281.3 pass yards per game, with 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. His completion percentage leaves a lot to be desired, but he's got no time in the pocket.
Love's been sacked 8 times this year, but he's been hit more than any other QB in the league. He's been sacked or knocked down nearly 30 times in three games, 3 of his offensive lineman have games of 3 or more pressures allowed already this year and it's why they needed to make drastic changes on the OL.
Defensively the Packers' need to do a lot better. They currently rank 29th in points allowed, 30th in opponent redzone efficiency and 28th in rush yards allowed. While a majority of those rush yards came last week against Bijan Robinson, the defense simply needs to be better.
Sunday's Best Bets
Jordan Love o1.5 Passing Touchdown (+110) | Lucky Rebel
If you're going to continue giving me this line, I'm going to continue to bet it. Everything I said about the Packers OL is true and while it has cost this offense a ton of points; I'm excited about the changes the team's made.
The team signed 3 new OL this week; Laken Tomlinson, Mekhi Becton and Kevin Zeitler. All 3 guys are veterans of the NFL, Becton a former Super Bowl Champion with the Philadelphia Eagles.
Zietler's the oldest of the bunch, but he's a Wisconsin native and finished last season as a top-5 guard in the NFL. None of these guys by any means solve all of the Packers issues, but anything's better than what they've got out there.
Love's also thrown for 2+ touchdowns in all three of their games this season and because the Packers have no run game; the entire offense is in his hands.
Green Bay is passing on 73% of their offensive plays, they've got the 3rd highest pass rate over expectation and it's all because the team can't run the ball. That okay, they don't need to.
Let Jordan coook.
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