Monday Night Football: Bills vs. Rams — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (10/12)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Oct 12, 2026, 3:31 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
nfl
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+3.5
-115
55
-105u
+156
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-3.5
100
54.5
-110o
-175
Happy Victory Monday to all of you celebrating. Week 5 in the NFL is coming to a close, but before it does; we've got a BIG time matchup on Monday Night.
The Los Angeles Rams will host the Buffalo Bills tonight at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California and this matchup has me so excited. Let's jump right into it.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: SoFi Stadium; Inglewood, California
- Date: Monday, October 12th, 2026
- Kickoff: 8:15 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (2025: 12-5; 215.8 YPG | 25 TD | 10 INT)
- Los Angeles Rams: Matthew Stafford (2025: 14-3; 254.1 YPG | 35 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Rams' House
The Los Angeles Rams come into this week's matchup at 2-2, fresh off a come from behind win over the Philadelphia Eagles; on the road. Now the Rams return home with another NFL power house on the docket, the Buffalo Bills.
Philly held Los Angeles to just 10 points for the entirety of the first three quarters, but finally surrendered a second touchdown with 4-minutes left in the game. The Rams would force a quick 3-and-out form the Eagles, get the ball back and score their second touchdown of the quarter with just over a minute left in the game.
The Rams held on to win the game and improved to 2-2 on the season. Matthew Stafford finished the game with 317 yards, no touchdowns and 2 interceptions.
Stafford's been struggling to start the year, averaging 297.3 pass yard per game with 6 touchdowns, but also 6 interceptions. He's been a lot more comfortable at home this year, with 4 of his 6 interceptions coming on the road but 4 of his 6 touchdown passes coming here at SoFi.
Puka Nacua made his way back into the lineup last week, finishing with 9 catches on 12 targets, 125 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Davante Adams was a little bit of an after thought with Nacua back, catching 4 of his 9 targets for just 32 yards.
The Rams are 11th in rush yards per game this year, 7th in yards per carry and they've got a top-4 run blocking group up front. Both Kyren Williams and Blake Corum have been great this year, both averaging 5+ YPC and even getting active in the pass game.
Blue Cheese Only
The Buffalo Bills are 3-1, but coming off back to back games in which they just looked really bad. The Bills are coming off their first loss of the season and it came at the hands of their division rival; the New England Patriots.
Buffalo went 2/4 in the redzone last week, left too many points on the table and the Patriots took advantage. Drake Maye had his best game of the year (at the time), throwing for 269 yards, 3 touchdowns and taking home a win on the road.
The Bills defense needs to be better, simply put. The unit's giving up 26.8 points per game (23rd), they rank 31st in first downs allowed, 29th in pass yards allowed and 23rd in opponent redzone conversion rate.
Offensively, they've got a ton of weapons. Josh Allen has been great and if you ignore the turnovers he's been even better. Allen's averaging 259.8 pass yards per game this year, he's thrown 6 touchdown passes and he's rushed for 7 more.
The problem is that Allen just hasn't been taking care of the football. He's got 3 interceptions on the year, he's fumbled 4 times but thankfully only lost 1 of those fumbles. His connection with DJ Moore has proven be extremely fruitful.
In the two games Moore hasn't left due to injury, he's caught 11 of his 18 targets, he's averaging 84 receiving yards per game and he's scored a touchdown. Moore's also seeing a 30.1% target share when he's on the field, nearly 10% more than Shakir who's second on the team.
Monday Night's Best Bets
Puka Nacua o94.5 Receiving Yards (-110) | Lucky Rebel
Puka Nacua is back in the lineup and when that happens we've seen how this often Stafford looks his way. When on the field this year, Nacua's seeing a 32.3% target share, he's averaging 2.9 yards per route run and he's seeing 32.1% first read target share.
He's Matthew Stafford's favorite target and we saw it again last week. He finished with 12 targets, 9 catches and 125 receiving yards.
This week the Rams face a Bills defense that ranks 29th in receiving yards allowed and 28th to receiving yards allowed to WRs. The Bills also give up the 9th most yards out of the slot and that's a place we've seen Puka thrive in his career.
Buffalo's best CB, Christian Benford, never plays in the slot and that's a place the Rams can take advantage.
Khalil Shakir Anytime Touchdown (+220) | Lucky Rebel
The Bills will be without Joshua Palmer today and possibly DJ Moore. While I think Moore will play, having played in 92 straight games now in the NFL; that only helps our case.
The Rams have one of the best secondaries in all of football and it all starts with Trent McDuffie. McDuffie has been (by far) the best CB in football this year and he's going to shadow the opposing teams WR1 for close to the entire game.
McDuffie's going to follow DJ in the slot, out wide on both sides and wherever he goes in the formation. That's why I like Khalil Shakir in this spot to get his first touchdown of the year.
The Rams have given up 7 touchdowns through the air this year, 6 of which have gone to opposing WRs. They've allowed a touchdown to the opposing WR2 in 3 of their 4 games this season and 3 of those 6 touchdowns have come against slot receivers.
Los Angeles is giving up 46% of their allowed receiving production to the slot and it's because QBs are avoiding McDuffie at all costs. He's been targeted just 18 times this year, giving up 5 catches and an allowed passer rating of 21.1. He's been in a league of his own.
Tonight's total is tied for highest of the week and if the Cardinals/Lions game taught us anything; we're going to see points. Shakir's seeing a 31.3% target share in the redzone, with 5 targets from inside the 20-yard line and 2 from inside the 10-yard line.
Shakir still hasn't scored a touchdown this year. He's incredibly due.
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