Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: NFL Predictions, Odds & Best Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Oct 11, 2024, 9:57 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The NFC South features an interesting matchup on Sunday as the New Orleans Saints host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. These teams are in a tight race for the NFC South, and are both looking to bounce back after losing last weekend.
New Orleans is 2-3 on the season. They started off very hot, winning two games and scoring 40+ in both of those contests, but since have lost 3 straight. Derek Carr is out for this contest, and instead the Saints will be tossing out Spencer Rattler to try and turn things around. They have a very short week, as they turn around and host the Broncos on Thursday Night, so the team may be looking ahead as a whole. New Orleans also just played on Monday night, so they face Tampa Bay off of short rest. As for the young QB, I think he will be focused on his big start.
Tampa Bay sits at just 3-2 this year, tied with Atlanta in the top of the division right now. After handling business against the Commanders, the Buccaneers upset the Lions in Detroit as 7 point underdogs. The next week was a big let down, losing at home to Denver, scoring just one touchdown. Tampa Bay then beat down the Eagles, and lost a thriller in Atlanta last Thursday. The Buccaneers are coming off a mini bye week as they prepare for their division rival, but the new news at QB for New Orleans may shake up their game plan.
Can Rattler lead the Saints to a win at home? Or will Baker and the Buccaneers take down their division rival?
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints: NFC South Showdown
Can the Buccaneers pull off a road win?
Matchup Information – Buccaneers vs Saints
- Venue & Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans, LA)
- Date: Sunday, October 13th, 2024
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Buccaneers -3.5 (-105)
- Saints +3.5 (-115)
Money Line
- Buccaneers -178
- Saints +158
Total
- Over 41.5 (-115)
- Under 41.5 (-105)
Saints Take On Bucs in NFC South Rivalry Game
Can Kamara run wild against the Buccaneers front 7?
With Rattler taking the reigns of the Saints offense, I don't really want to touch them. And that's perfect, because with the Buccaneers safeties still being questionable, I'm not too eager to back them either. New Orleans needs to turn things around, but I'm not sure Rattler is going to be that guy. What can he do that Derek Carr can't? Maybe he's a bit more mobile? But overall I don't see this being a permanent solution.
The Saints have plenty of skill players, and I thought Kubiak had things figured out. But maybe it's just his schemes that have been solved. They've been held to just 16.3 points per game in their last 3 losses.
Now, the Buccaneers have a very good defense, but it is admittedly a bit banged up. They couldn't slow down the Falcons, but did a great job of stopping Detroit on the road. Tampa Bay should be able to win this game if their defense shows up. If not, Baker and the boys might have to score 30 to get a W. We know that in the NFL, home divisional dogs usually bark. I have no intention of taking the Buccaneers, even on the ML, as I think this certainly stays within a field goal either way. As for the total, I do see these teams being able to score. I don't have a very strong lean, but would probably bet the over if you forced my hand.
As for my coin, I've got my eye on a player prop we've taken before. I'll sound like a broken record pitching it, but until the books significantly shift this guy's line, I will take it ever single week whether publicly or not.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New Orleans Saints Best Bets
Can Baker clear his rushing prop for a 4th time this season?
Buccaneers vs Saints Prediction: Buccaneers Win & Cover, Under 41.5
Best Bet: Baker Mayfield Over 11.5 Rushing Yards (-114) BetOnline
Baker Mayfield plays football. He isn't afraid to put his body on the line, he takes hits, and he does whatever is necessary for his team to win. This includes him clearing this line in 3/5 games this season, having one game without a rush, and one where he ended with 10 yards. He averages 6 yards per rush, has 10 carries in his L2 games, and New Orleans struggles to contain QBs.
New Orleans Against Rushing QBs
- Bryce Young: 4 for 12 yards, TD
- Dak Prescott: 2 for 12 yards
- Jalen Hurts: 8 for 25 yards
- Kirk Cousins: You expect Kirk to run?
- Patrick Mahomes: 6 for 25 yards
Mayfield should clear this line in his sleep, as Marshon Lattimore and the Saints secondary will be more worried about Mike Evans and Chris Godwin running circles around them.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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