2026 FIFA World Cup Dark Horse Picks: Who Can Surprise the Field?
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Thu May 28, 2026, 4:38 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
soccer
We are exactly two weeks away from kick off in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, hosted in North America. There is plenty of World Cup content out at Betting News, including the match schedule, future picks, and reactions to the USMNT roster. However, everybody loves an upset. Everyone loves rooting for the underdog, and there's not better feeling than cashing a future that's longer than 10-1 odds. Let's take a look at the betting odds to win the World Cup, and see if there are any Dark Horses worth wagering on in this year's tournament.
2026 FIFA World Cup Dark Horse Candidates
Cody Gakpo scored three goals in both the 2022 World Cup and the 2024 EURO for the Netherlands
Let's start by looking at the odds board after a few teams have announced their squads. Odds courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook.
Odds to Win 2026 FIFA World Cup
- Spain +450
- France +475
- England +700
- Brazil +850
- Argentina +850
- Portugal +1000
- Germany +1600
- Netherlands +2800
- Norway +3500
- Colombia +4000
- Belgium +4500
- Japan +6000
- Morocco +6000
- United States +6500
Based on these odds, the winner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is likely one of the top five on the odds board. If you are searching for a team with a legit shot at winning, I wouldn't look much further down. If you read my World Cup futures piece, you knew we have stake in the top three: Spain, France and England. But for the sake of this article, let's find some longer shots to take a stab at.
2026 FIFA World Cup Dark Horse Picks
Can Virgil Van Dijk and the Dutch surprise some people in this year's World Cup?
The Netherlands +2800
The Oranje have never won the world cup, but they have made three separate World Cup finals. Back in the 70s, they were back to back runners ups, losing in 1974 and 1978. Over 30 years later in 2010, they made the final again only to come up short. But for nearly 30-1 odds, I think they are worth a small sprinkle this year.
For starters, they made the quarterfinals in 2022, and made the EURO 2024 semifinals, losing to England on a 90′ minute goal. Even without the presence of Xavi Simons in the attacking midfield, the Dutch should be just find. Up top, they are led by Memphis Depay, Cody Gakpo and Donyell Malen, not to mention Justin Kluivert and Wout Weghorst are there to help as well. The attack should not be a problem for the Netherlands.
In the midfield, Frenkie de Jong, Ryan Gravenberch and Tijjani Reijnders are more than capable of competing with anyone. Gravenberch and Reijnders appeared in over 28 English Premier League matches for their squads (Liverpool and Manchester City), while de Jong saw 25 caps for Barcelona in La Liga. One could argue that the Dutch have a top five, if not, top three, midfield in this tournament with those three players.
Defensively, they should be just fine. Virgil Van Dijk still patrols the back line, alongside Nathan Aké, Jurriën Timber, who had a hell of a season for the EPL champion Arsenal Gunners, and Denzel Dumphries covering the entire sideline. If there was any year for the Dutch to break through and get over the hump, this is it.
Bruno Fernandes set the All Time Single Season Assists Record in the EPL this season with 21
Portugal +1000
This might not be considered a "Dark Horse" since this team is led by Cristiano Ronaldo. However for 10-1 odds, Portugal is also worth some fun money. Bruno Fernandes just set an EPL record for most assists in a season, and Bernardo Silva and Vitinha round out a very aggressive midfield.
With Ronaldo in the attack will be Joao Felix and likely Pedro Neto, but there is room for Rafael Leao and Goncalo Ramos to have some time on the pitch as well. The defense is what gives me a little pause. I am not worried about Joao Cancelo in the fullback position, but I'm not convinced that Ruben Dias and Diogo Dalot can hang with some of the best attacks on the world.
My major concern for this squad would be being able to contain opposing attacks, otherwise they may have to net three goals per match to have any success.
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- FIFA World Cup Betting Guide
- 2026 FIFA World Cup Match Schedule
- FIFA World Cup Futures
- USMNT World Cup Roster Reactions
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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