World Cup Semi-Final Player Props Picks: Today’s Best Value Plays (7/14)

BettingThePitch

Written by: BettingThePitch

Published: Tue Jul 14, 2026, 8:00 am ET

Read Time: 5 minutes

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FIFA World Cup

I can't believe we're down to just four teams remaining in the World Cup.

What an incredible ride this tournament has been. We've witnessed what could be the final international matches for some all-time greats while also watching the next generation announce themselves on the biggest stage.

Now it all comes down to the final four. Even crazier, they also happen to be the four highest-ranked teams in the world.

We'll break down England vs. Argentina tomorrow. Today, we're focusing on what I believe is the match that will decide who wins this year's World Cup. Let's get into it!

Featured Plays

Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer

I'm going right back to the well with this one.

There are a couple of reasons I love this play. First, if there was ever a moment for Mbappé to take control of the Golden Boot race while leading France to another World Cup final, this is it.

The pressure is on France, and rightfully so. They've looked like the best team in the tournament, yet I still don't think we've seen them play their best football.

After Lionel Messi was held scoreless in his last match, he and Mbappé are now tied with eight goals at the top of the Golden Boot race. Don't think for a second Mbappé isn't aware of that.

Spain haven't impressed me the way they have in previous tournaments. They're still an excellent side, but I believe France's attack, led by Mbappé, has the quality to expose this back line.

Spain finally conceded their first goal of the tournament against Belgium. It took a perfect cross and an outstanding finish, but Belgium also created a handful of dangerous transition opportunities throughout the match.

Now Spain face their toughest attacking test of the World Cup.

France are averaging 2.7 goals per 90 minutes. They also lead the tournament with 14.3 expected goals, 27 big chances created, and a +10.5 expected-goal differential.

Those numbers tell the story. France create chances in bunches while limiting quality opportunities at the other end.

Spain's midfield has been outstanding for most of the tournament. Over the last two matches, though, I've noticed both midfielders struggle at times when put under pressure.

If France can win those midfield battles, Mbappé will have opportunities to attack defenders in space. That's exactly where he is at his most dangerous.

At plus money, I'm more than happy to back one of the best players in the world to find the net.

Play: Kylian Mbappé Anytime Goalscorer (+110)

Lamine Yamal 2+ Shots on Target

Can Lamine Yamal step up when the lights are the brightest?

I'm also going back to the well with Lamine Yamal.

The production has been there all tournament. He's averaging 5.11 shots and 2.22 shots on target per 90 minutes.

He's recorded at least two shots on target in every match except one. That game came against Uruguay in the Miami heat and was also his first start after returning from injury.

I've mentioned it in previous articles, but I still don't think we've seen the best version of Yamal. Whether it's the lingering injury or simply the workload he's carried over the last year, something has looked just a little off.

Even so, one thing has never changed.

The kid shoots.

He's attempted 11 shots from outside the box and another 12 from inside the area during this World Cup. No matter where he receives the ball, he's confident enough to let it fly.

I lean France in this matchup. If Spain find themselves chasing the game, expect Yamal to become even more aggressive.

He'll cut inside onto that left foot every chance he gets and won't hesitate to test the goalkeeper from distance.

France's defense has been outstanding throughout the tournament, but I also think they'll force Yamal to take matters into his own hands. That should only increase his shot volume.

If Spain are going to reach the final, Yamal will almost certainly be at the center of it.

I like his chances of putting at least two efforts on target.

Play: Lamine Yamal 2+ Shots on Target (+150)

Still Want More World Cup Content?

Here at Betting News, we offer free expert picks for every major sports league.

We also host daily streams on our Twitch channel. There, we break down our favorite bets and sweat out the action live!

Be sure to check out our content on YouTube, TikTok, and X. You can also follow my personal X account, @BettingThePitch, for additional free plays, World Cup coverage, and tournament content throughout the month.

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BettingThePitch
BettingThePitch

Just a guy who loves sports, soccer and beating the books!

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