Preakness Stakes Q&A with Horse Racing Handicapper Chris Adams

Each week, horse racing handicapper extraordinaire Chris Adams makes his picks for races at tracks such as Churchill Downs, Santa Anita Park, and more. This week, his picks are highlighted by the Preakness Stakes, the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Two weeks ago, the 2026 Triple Crown season kicked off with an upset in the Kentucky Derby. After a slow start, Golden Tempo charged through the field to make Cherie DeVaux the first female trainer to win the Derby.

However, Golden Tempo will not run at Laurel Park, as he is being rested for the Preakness. With the Derby winner not taking part in the second leg for the second straight year, calls for longer turnaround times between the Triple Crown races have only intensified.

That topic is one of several tackled for a pre-Preakness Q&A with Chris, who graciously took some time out of his busy week to give his thoughts on the Preakness and the state of horse racing.

Preakness Stakes Q&A

Q. Is Ocelli getting too much love for his Kentucky Derby finish, or is he a serious contender?

Ocelli is a horse I would gladly take in my barn, but let's look at the facts.

He's never won a race in 7 tries. His third in the Derby was his closest beaten lengths of any race he's ever run which isn't saying much since 3 of those races came against horses who had never won.

Let's also remember that the Derby was a pace meltdown. The only runner to hold on to early position was the #7 Danon Bourbon who finished 5th. He finished third on trip, not talent and I don't see this race having that kind of crazy pace to setup here.

Also hard to imagine that race didn't take something out of him. No easy task against a host of new shooters.

Q. Which horse with longer odds is most likely to contend for the win?

I really like the home field advantage that Taj Mahal has here. His Tessio is the highest speed fig in the race and most importantly it was at this track.

He's fresh and 3 for 3 over the ground. I am worried he's going to take juice and be among the favorites.

My sneaky longshots #10 Napoleon Solo (8-1) with tactical speed and a freshening that could be the difference in this race. I do also like the Blue Grass and wouldn't totally discount #5 Talkin (20-1) for Ortiz and Gargan.

Q. What are the notable differences between Pimlico and Laurel Park that Preakness bettors should be mindful of?

I think the biggest thing to realize is that we're dealing with what I feel is a more traditional fair dirt surface. The track is larger and makes the turns wider and more gradual as opposed to the tight turns at Pimlico.

All this means that better horses should have better chances. You are less likely to see total pace anomalies at Laurel Park.

One thing I do think is important is that they will be using the first of two finish lines which means horses will have less opportunity to come from the clouds like they might in a longer stretch run. This definitely favors horses near the front turning for home.

Q. Is there a horse that skipped the Preakness that you would have liked to see in the race?

Jockeys and trainers are cool, but nobody watched the '96 Bulls because they loved Phil Jackson. I wish horse racing did a better job of creating stars that people could follow so that racing wasn't something that only mattered three times a year to the general fan.

For that reason, I wish all the major players would return. I love rivalries and it is what we need to help grow the sport.

However, if I had to pick one horse to come back it would have to be #7 Danon Bourbon from Japan. The horse held 5th despite being part of a crushing pace duel. It has since been revealed that he suffered a broken bone during the race that will keep him out until 2027. If he could hold on in the stretch like that on three legs, he would have been a real fun one to watch compete in this division all year long.

Q. Do you think it is likely that the dates of the Preakness and Belmont Stakes will move soon to try to increase Triple Crown possibilities?

Purists hate this question. They somehow think it cheapens the other Triple Crowns if a horse wins under different circumstances. Other sports change all the time and we still watch them. Had there been a Triple Crown this year, the Preakness and Belmont both would have been won at the wrong tracks and the latter at a shorter distance. Does that mean it wasn't going to count?

As I mentioned before, the problem with horse racing is that we don't have enough stars. People watch two races a year, three if a Triple Crown is on the line. The casual fan gets bummed when they were all in on a horse in the Derby, only to find out they have to pick a new horse in the other two legs. Without this interest, viewership drops until next year's Derby.

We need the Triple Crown to be our 3-year-old all-star games. Only then do we have a chance to get the casual fan tuning into the Travers at Saratoga in August or the Breeders' Cup in November. It's elite rivalries that bring niche sports into the mainstream.

All that to say that with modern training practices there is no way to get much of the Derby field to line up for all three races and that keeps casual fans casual. Ultimately it hurts our sport. We need this more than we need to make sure horses live up to Sir Barton's legacy.

Get More Horse Racing Insight from Chris Adams

As mentioned above, Chris provides his expert horse racing picks every week. His picks cover the top race tracks in the United States and North America, as well as major international races.

Today alone, Chris will have picks for the Saturday races at Churchill Downs, Gulfstream Park, and Santa Anita Park, in addition to his picks for the Preakness Stakes and the full Saturday card at Laurel Park.

For even more thoroughbred thoughts and tips from Chris, check him out on social media.

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And along with Chris's expert insights each week, Betting News is home to daily horse racing computer picks from many top tracks, as well as guides on speed figures, how horse racing odds work, types of horse racing bets, and much more.