England vs Fiji Rugby World Cup Prediction & Picks: Can the Flying Fijians Repeat Their August Achievement to Soar Into the Semis?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Fri Oct 13, 2023, 5:42 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
Misc.
After wrapping up their 2023 Rugby World Cup preparations with a first-ever loss to Fiji, it looked like England could be ripe for the picking in a tricky Pool D. Instead, they went through pool play unblemished, and they now get another crack at Fiji, this time in a World Cup quarterfinal matchup on Sunday in Marseille (11:00 am ET, Peacock).
On the last Saturday in August, the Flying Fijians pulled off a stunning 30-22 upset at Twickenham, recording their first win over the 2003 Rugby World Cup winners in eight tries.
With only four wins in 13 games leading up to the World Cup, expectations were low for Chris Borthwick's squad. Pre-tournament odds reflected a lot of faith that Argentina could beat them out in Pool D.
However, England dispatched the Pumas in their opener, then defeated Japan, Chile, and Samoa to top their pool with 18 out of 20 possible points.
In their ninth Rugby World Cup quarterfinal appearance, they will be facing a Fijian side that has not reached this stage of the competition since 2007, when the tournament was last held in France.
Will England's World Cup journey extend into the semifinals for the sixth time, or will Fiji reach the final four for the first time? The winner of this match will face the France-South Africa winner a week from Saturday at the Stade de France.
England vs Fiji Odds
Odds are via Bovada.
Spread
- England -8.5 (-105)
- Fiji +8.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- England -300
- Fiji +265
- Draw +2400
Over/Under
- Over 45.5 (-110)
- Under 45.5 (-110)
Will England Be Buoyed by Swapping Ford for Quins Sensation Smith?
In England's Pool D finale against Samoa, captain Owen Farrell and vice-captain George Ford started together for the first time in the tournament, with Ford starting at fly-half and Farrell at inside centre. Farrell was suspended for the first two matches against Argentina and Japan, and while he started against Chile, Ford came on from the bench in the second half.
After cutting it too close for comfort in a nervy 18-17 win over Manu Samoa, Borthwick has made a few big calls for his starting XV against Fiji.
2023 Rugby World Cup Results for England
- 27-10 W vs Argentina
- 34-12 W vs Japan
- 71-0 W vs Chile
- 18-17 W vs Samoa
The England captain will start at his preferred position of fly-half against Fiji, while Ford has been dropped to the bench. Also, Harlequins star Marcus Smith, who is also typically is a fly-half, will start at full-back, replacing Freddie Steward, who also moves to the bench.
Additionally, Elliott Daly, who was not selected in the squad against Samoa after starting the first three matches, will start at left wing, with Jonny May moving to the opposite wing. All of those moves mean that Joe Marchant and Manu Tuilagi move back to inside centre and outside centre, respectively.
England Starting Lineup vs Fiji
- Ellis Genge
- Jamie George
- Dan Cole
- Maro Itoje
- Ollie Chessum
- Courtney Lawes
- Tom Curry
- Ben Earl
- Alex Mitchell
- Owen Farrell (captain)
- Elliott Daly
- Manu Tuilagi
- Joe Marchant
- Jonny May
- Marcus Smith
Dropping the experienced Ford to the bench ftartor such a big game is a huge call, but this starting XV should work much more cohesively, and the inclusion of Smith could be a game-changer.
He made his first start at full-back against Chile and scored two tries in England's 71-0 win, and his speed and playmaking ability can open up Fiji.
The Flying Fijians had one foot in the quarters after picking up two bonus points in a loss against Wales and a 22-15 win over Australia, but they made hard work of wrapping up their spot in the last eight.
2023 Rugby World Cup Results for Fiji
- 32-26 L vs Wales
- 22-15 W vs Australia
- 17-12 W vs Georgia
- 24-23 L vs Portugal
They trailed Georgia 9-0 in the second half with under a half-hour remaining before rallying for a 17-12 win, leaving them needing just a bonus point against Portugal to advance. That is exactly what they got in a 24-23 loss, as they fell to a late converted try.
Should there be some concern about how Fiji will fare against England after having such a tough time with inferior opposition in their final two Pool C matches after impressive showings against Wales and Australia?
Absolutely. But given how big it is for Fiji to even be in the quarters, those struggles against Georgia and Portugal are not likely to impact their approach and confidence against England.
England vs Fiji Prediction and Picks
Prediction: England to win
Picks: England -8.5 (-105 at Bovada) & England first half -3.5 (-115 at Bovada)
Fiji will come to play, but I think the changes that England have made will bring out their best level, or at least a much better level than what we saw against Samoa.
Where to Bet on the 2023 Rugby World Cup
While rugby may not be one of the most widely watched or bet on sports in the United States, the Rugby World Cup always draws a lot of attention.
In fact, you can find 2023 Rugby World Cup odds at many of the top sports betting sites available to bettors in the USA.
Here are some of the online sportsbooks that we recommend which offer odds on each game in the tournament, as well as Rugby World Cup winner futures odds:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our in-depth reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds. Happy betting, and please bet responsibly.
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