(8/7) MLB | Tonight’s Best Bets on the Diamond
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Fri Aug 07, 2026, 4:33 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
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-195
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+170
The ball just hasn't been flying the same over the last two weeks, so we're going to pivot to some MLB Player Props instead.
I've got three props locked in on the diamond tonight, let's jump straight into it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
MLB Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Today's Best Bets
Max Muncy o1.5 HRR (-125) | Lucky Rebel
Max Muncy has been a Los Angeles Dodger for nearly his entire career. He was drafted by the Oakland Athletics but made his way to Los Angeles in his third season in the big leagues.
With so much time as a Dodger, he's played the Diamondbacks a ton; especially Merrill Kelly. Kelly's got a 5.04 ERA this year, he's giving up 1.8 HR/9 and he's been even worse at home. In Arizona, Kelly's ERA climbs to 6.33 and he's giving up 2.6 HR/9.
Kelly's allowing batters to hit .281 on the year, giving up a .527 SLG to left handed batters and 23 total home runs; 15 being to lefties.
Left handed bats have recorded a 47% HH against Kelly this year and Muncy's been great against Kelly, historically. Muncy's batting .417 in his career against Kelly, he's got a .617 SLG, 15 hits and just 1 home run.
Against left handed bats, Kelly's using either his change up or his fastball, 64% of the time. Both are pitches Muncy has crushed this year, with 10 of his 22 home runs coming against these two pitches.
Jo Adell o1.5 HRR (-125) | Lucky Rebel
Jo Adell's found a new home outside of Anaheim and that's with the Cleveland Guardians. After hitting a career high 37 home runs last year, Adell's regressed a ton. Some of it has to with his play, but a lot can be said about the Angels as an organization in general this year.
Adell's now played three games with the Guardians since the trade deadline, he's got just 2 hits across 11 play appearances and both hits came in his first game with the Guards. Adell's hitting .237 this year with 16 home runs and a .392 SLG. However, he smashes left handed pitchers.
Against lefties, Adell's batting average jumps to .306, with a .573 SLG and 10 of his 16 home runs have come against left handed pitching. Tonight he faces off with Noah Schultz and the Chicago Whit Sox.
Schultz has a 5.82 ERA this year, he's giving up 1.2 HR/9 and he struggles against righties. He's allowing right handed bats to hit .250 on the year with a .444 SLG and 44% HH. Eight of the 9 home runs he's given up have come against righties.
Schultz also relies heavily on a mix of different fastball against righties and that's never a good idea against Adell. He's hit 16 home runs this year, 10 have come on fastballs.
Yordan Alvarez o1.5 HRR (-130) | Lucky Rebel
Just hear me out before you close this tab. Yordan's cost us a few units over the last week, but we're steering clear of the home run and getting soft with the hits/runs/RBI prop.
Yordan's hit this line in 7 of his last 10 games overall, 6 of his last 9 games on the road and in 3 straight games against left handed pitchers. Alvarez is top-5 in runs scored, RBI and leads the league in batting average (min. 200 PA).
Yordan's hitting .329 this year with a .640 SLG, he leads the league with a .439 OBP and has drawn the third most walks on the season.
The Padres will send out Robbie Ray for tonight's matchup. He's got a 3.14 ERA this year, but he's historically struggled against this Astros lineup. Three of the Astros top 4 hitters tonight are hitting about .300 against Ray in their careers and between the four of them; they've hit 4 home runs.
Alvarez is 2/4 against Ray in his career, recording a 25% BRL and 100% HH. This is more juice than I normally bet in the MLB, but with Yordan I'm willing to make an exception.
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