Thriving in the Windy City — Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Mon Aug 31, 2026, 4:22 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
mlb
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-1.5
150
8.5
100o
-112
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+1.5
-170
8.5
-120u
+127
Happy Monday. Today's the last day of August, the summer's all but over. With that being said, the vibes couldn't be higher in the Windy City. Both MLB teams in the city are thriving and the White Sox could win their division.
The summer's coming to an end, but the fall's just getting started. The hunt for October heats up as we head into September and tonight we've got a couple of key matchups I've got my eyes on.
I'm locked in on two hitters, one from the AL Central leading White Sox. Let's not waste any time, let's jump straight to it.
The cheat sheet makes it a lot easier when I run through the stats I'm looking at and as always, hit me up on X if you've got more questions.
Dinger Cheat Sheet
- BA — Batting Average
- oBA — Opponent Batting Average
- xBA — Expected BA
- SLG — Slugging Percentage
- ISO — Isolated Power
- wOBA — Weighted On-Base Average
- HH% — Hard Hit Rate
- BRL% — Barrel Rate
- HR/9 — Home Runs per 9 innings
- XBH — Extra Base Hit
- RBI — Runs Batted In
Dinger Counter: 19-38; +20.2 units
Today's Dingers
Miguel Vargas Home Run (+360) | Lucky Rebel
Miguel Vargas leads the White Sox this year with 29 home runs, 76 RBI and 92 runs scored. He's played in 134 of the team's 136 games and held it down when one of the team's biggest bats (Munetaka Murakami) went down.
Vargas is putting up career highs across the board, batting .249 with a .490 SLG, 17% BRL and 46% HH. His batting average does drop on the road, but 14 of his 29 home runs have come outside of Chicago.
In his last five games, Vargas is batting .333 with an xSLG of .414 and just a 23% flyball rate. On the year, Vargas has an xSLG of .513 and a flyball rate of 45%. His batting average has gone up in his most recent games but he's having issues getting underneath the ball.
Tonight he'll face Peter Lambert and the Houston Astros. Lambert's allowing a 49% flyball rate to right handed bats and 8 of the 13 home runs he's given up have been surrendered to righties. He's allowing them to hit .270 on the year and giving up an 11% BRL.
Lambert's pitch mix (against RHB) includes a heavy mix (76%) of his 4-seam slider, sinker and slider. Vargas has 18 home runs against those exact three pitches, with a 15% BRL, 48% HH and .416 xwOBA.
Bryce Harper Home Run (+520) | Lucky Rebel
Bryce Harper has not been kind to us this year and maybe I'm crazy, but I'm going back.
Harper's hitting .266 on the year, he's hit 27 home runs and he's got a SLG of .503. He's on track to hit 30 home runs for the sixth time in his career and tonight he plays in a ballpark he's performed exceptionally well.
Harper's played here 20 times since joining the Phillies, batting .300, with 20 hits, 3 home runs and 21 total runs/RBI. Harper's hit 6 total home runs here in the desert and tonight he faces Brandon Pfaadt.
Harper and Pfaadt have extended history against each other, with Harper recording just 1 hit in 10 plate appearances. Oddly enough, he's only been struck out twice. He' making contact, hard contact even.
Harper's got a 25% BRL against Pfaadt in his career and 63% HH. That 1 hit he recorded was a home run too.
Pfaadt's pitch mix against lefties consists mainly a 4-seam fastball, a changeup and curveball. Harper's hitting .283 against these three pitches, with a .564 SLG, a 13% BRL, 47% HH and .510 xwOBA.
Harper's also just been significantly better against right handed pitchers. He's batting .300 against righties this year, with a .613 SLG, 15% BRL and 49% HH. This ballpark stinks, but it's also why we're getting this price.
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You may know me as ‘VSaaauce’. I’ve been a die hard hoops fan my entire life. I’ve been betting on the NBA/NCAAB/NFL/MLB for six years now, each year gaining more and more knowledge about being a profitable handicapper. I’m eager to learn, and eager to pass on everything I’ve gained over the last few years. I started my Twitter page four years ago, and this community makes me so thankful I did. Outside of sports and handicapping, I enjoy traveling, hoopin, a strong espresso and I’m currently studying to obtain my MD. I’m all about the vibes, good vibes only. If that sounds like you, follow me on 'X' @VSaaauce.
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