Leaning on Messick: Expert Picks in the MLB Today
Written by: Justin Carlucci
Published: Thu Oct 08, 2026, 8:00 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
mlb
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-1.5
156
7
-110u
-112
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+1.5
-172
7.0
+100o
+105
You've found my Guardians vs. White Sox prediction and MLB expert pick for Thursday, Oct. 8! We have one game on the docket, and Cleveland is trying to extend its season against a Chicago team that still leads the American League Division Series, 2-1.
The expected pitching matchup gives us two talented lefties in Parker Messick and Hagen Smith. Before we dive into my best MLB bet today, check out our MLB Picks Page and MLB Odds Page.
Guardians vs. White Sox MLB Expert Pick for Thursday (Oct. 8)
Let's get this out of the way: I love Hagen Smith.
He's one of my favorite young pitchers, and his stuff is nasty. After dominating as a college starter and working to establish himself in that role professionally, he's become a shutdown relief option for Chicago.
The talent isn't the question. The assignment is.
Smith is listed as Chicago's expected starter after throwing two-thirds of an inning on Wednesday. How long can he go? How much can the White Sox reasonably ask of him before they need another arm?
Those questions matter a little more after Wednesday.
Chicago used six relievers behind Sean Newcomb, and Cleveland had to lean heavily on its entire pitching staff, too. Neither team enters this game with a bullpen that's been sitting around waiting for something to do.
That makes Messick a huge part of this handicap. He didn't pitch Wednesday, and Cleveland can turn to a rested starter who's been remarkably consistent.
Guardians vs. White Sox MLB Odds
Odds via BetOnline.ag, an industry leader in the sports betting world:
- Cleveland Guardians -1.5 (+157)
- Cleveland Guardians moneyline (-113)
- Chicago White Sox +1.5 (-180)
- Chicago White Sox moneyline (+103)
- Over/Under 7.5 (+100, -120)
Guardians vs. White Sox Prediction Today
Messick is exactly the type of pitcher I'd want on the mound with my season hanging in the balance.
According to Baseball Savant, his 3.15 expected ERA puts him in the 85th percentile. He has an above-average strikeout rate, allows a barrel rate of only 5%, and does an excellent job limiting hard contact.
He also keeps the ball on the ground. That's a pretty nice combination when one mistake can put you on the wrong end of an elimination game.
Messick hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in a start since the end of June. That's the kind of consistency I want to lean on here, especially with both teams hoping their starter can keep them from having to piece together another long night out of the bullpen.
He doesn't need to throw a complete game. But giving Cleveland a steady outing and taking some pressure off the relief corps would go a long way.
The left-on-left matchups are worth considering, too.
Munetaka Murakami and Colson Montgomery are scary bats. I'm not pretending Messick's handedness makes either one harmless, but I'd rather have him working with the platoon advantage against those two than the other way around.
Smith has plenty of ability to create problems for Cleveland himself. This isn't a bet built around assuming the White Sox starter falls apart. But the Guardians have a potential answer in Joe Adell, who's been dynamite against left-handed pitching this season. Adell is one hitter who could make Smith's appearance uncomfortable.
Cleveland doesn't need everybody to have a monster night. It needs a few timely swings and the kind of start Messick has been delivering for months.
Best MLB Bet Today: Guardians Moneyline
My MLB expert pick for Thursday is Cleveland on the moneyline at -113.
The price is fair, and Messick is the biggest reason I'm willing to lay it. He's rested, he's in his normal role, and his combination of strikeouts, weak contact, and ground balls gives Cleveland a strong foundation.
Best Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-113) | BetOnline.ag
I respect Smith. A lot. But I have more confidence in what Messick can provide as a starter than in how Chicago's pitching plan will unfold behind a guy who's spent most of his season working in relief.
With both bullpens coming off a busy game, that distinction matters. Give me the Guardians to extend the series.
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Carlucci spent nearly a decade as a reporter, editor, and on-air talent in the Poconos. His transition into the fantasy sports and sports betting industries began in 2016 with roles at Daily Fantasy Insider and Daily Roto Sharks, which led to positions at Better Collective (RotoGrinders). During this period, his work gained national recognition through regular contributions to the New York Post and featured appearances on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Carlucci has also contributed to Fantasy Alarm and most recently served as Managing Editor at Third Planet Media (Props.com), where he led content strategy, editorial direction, and served as the forward-facing voice of the brand through live streams and podcasts. You can also find his work at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life and Hard Rock Digital. He's for some reason a die-hard Titans and 76ers fan and has developed trust issues from "trusting the process." Follow him on X @ThejCarlucci!
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