Pitcher’s Duel: Sunday Expert Divisional Round Picks

TonesTakes

Written by: TonesTakes

Published: Sun Oct 04, 2026, 7:57 am ET

Read Time: 4 minutes

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mlb

San Diego Padres logo
Live
Milwaukee Brewers logo

San Diego Padres
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

+1.5

-123

7

-104u

+184

Milwaukee Brewers
Odds

Spread

Total

Moneyline

-1.5

160

7.0

-105o

-130

See Picks & Statistics For The Game

Yesterday resulted in a 1-1 record for a minor loss of .02 Units. YTD now sits at 51-34 for a profit of 23.36 Units. For today I am looking at 2 plus money plays for Game 2 between the San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers.

Before we dive in, if you are looking for more information on how to bet baseball; take a look at our MLB Betting Guide.

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San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers

Logan Henderson has 10 wins for the Brewers this year. Can he add another tonight on the road? MLB Expert Picks

Logan Henderson has 10 wins for the Brewers this year. Can he add another tonight on the road?

San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers Pitching Matchup

  • San Diego Padres – RHP Michael King (12-10, 3.21 ERA/1.18 WHIP)
  • Milwaukee Brewers – RHP Logan Henderson (11-3, 2.47 ERA/0.84 WHIP)

Best Bet: San Diego Padres vs Milwaukee Brewers 1st 5 Innings Under 3.5 +113 Lucky Rebel

The Milwaukee Brewers hung on for a 3-2 win to open up the National League Divisional Series, not without controversy, though. Ty France smoked a ball in the top of the Ninth that looked to be a home run. Unfortunately, for the Padres, the ball hit the roof and dropped right into the glove of Jackson Chourio. San Diego looks to avoid going home in a 0-2 hole and they are sending their best starter to the mound, in Micheal King. The right hander has absolutely  dominated the Brewers over his career. Milwaukee owns a collective .190 batting average (12/63) against him. King is coming off a fantastic start in the wild card round. He after completely dismantled the Cubs,, throwing 7.0 scoreless innings while giving up only one hit and striking out 8. His sweeping slider will likely keep Brewers hitters off-balance during their first few looks.

Milwaukee will counter with Logan Henderson, who is no slouch in his own right. The Milwaukee rookie makes his playoff debut and he boasts a microscopic 0.84 WHIP, meaning he rarely beats himself with free passes or allows consecutive base runners. Henderson offers a different look to the Padres than Jacob Misiorowski as he is more of an off speed pitcher. His pristine control drastically cuts down the risk of the multi-run innings, which always benefits and under bet. Unlike Game 1, where 4 runs were plated over the first 3 innings, Game 2 should see a much quieter start.

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Best Bet: Michael King Over 5.5 Ks +125 Lucky Rebel

I mentioned above how King has dominated this Milwaukee lineup, but let's discuss his strikeout history. Over the 63 collective at-bats, the Brewers have struck out 21 times, which is a strikeout rate of 33%. During the regular season, the Brewers owned a strikeout rate of 22% against right handed pitchers, which was 10th worst in the majors. King has been the workhorse of the Padres' rotation, leading the team with 185.0 innings pitched this season. If the Padres can get 5-6 innings out of him, I think he'll hit this number. I like the value of this wager.

 

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TonesTakes
TonesTakes

Tone is a NHL and MLB expert who regularly posts profitable seasons. A Philadelphia native, Tone enjoys watching his tickets cash while smoking cigars next to his fire pit. Feared by the sportsbooks, Tone is the ultimate bettors buddy.

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