NASCAR Cup Series 4EVER 400 Predictions & Picks: Will Harvick Return to Victory Lane at Homestead?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Sat Oct 21, 2023, 1:22 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Nine years ago, Kevin Harvick won at Homestead-Miami Speedway to capture the 2014 NASCAR Sprint Cup Series title. It's no longer the season finale, but how fitting it would be for the retiring Harvick to win Sunday's race at Homestead (2:30 pm ET, NBC), which is named the 4EVER 400 in a nod to the 2014 Cup Series champion.
That title-clinching victory is one of Harvick's 60 in the NASCAR Cup Series, which places him tenth all time.
Win #60 came in last year's Federated Auto Parts 400 at Richmond, and while his participation in the playoffs ended with the Round of 16, adding one final win to his tally would certainly add some shine to his final season.
As for the drivers who are still in contention for this year's championship, Kyle Larson became the first driver to seal a spot in the Championship 4 by winning last week's South Point 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
NASCAR Cup Series Points Standings (Entering the 4EVER 400)
- Kyle Larson – 4084
- William Byron – 4077
- Martin Truex Jr. – 4070
- Denny Hamlin – 4070
- Christopher Bell – 4068
- Tyler Reddick – 4054
- Ryan Blaney – 4053
- Chris Buescher – 4047
Larson held off the hard-charging Christopher Bell on the final stretch to claim his second win of the playoffs and fourth of the season.
At Bovada, the 2021 Cup Series champion is now a +125 favorite for the title, ahead of Hendrick Motorsports teammate William Byron (+350) and Denny Hamlin (+450).
Larson, Byron, and Hamlin are the last three winners of this race, and they are all expected to be in the running on Sunday. Will we see a Hendrick three-peat, a record-setting win for Hamlin, or an emotional triumph for Harvick?
Odds to Win the 2023 4EVER 400
Odds are via Bovada.
- Kyle Larson +275
- Tyler Reddick +600
- Denny Hamlin +700
- Martin Truex Jr. +750
- William Byron +750
- Christopher Bell +1200
- Ross Chastain +1400
- Chris Buescher +1600
- Brad Keselowski +1800
- Kyle Busch +1800
- Ryan Blaney +1800
- Chase Elliott +2000
- Kevin Harvick +2800
- Bubba Wallace +3000
- Joey Logano +3300
- Ty Gibbs +4000
- Alex Bowman +5000
- Daniel Suarez +6600
- Erik Jones +8000
- A.J. Allmendinger +10000
4EVER 400 Predictions and Picks
Last year, Larson was already eliminated from the playoffs when he won at Homestead.
This time around, he might be the man to beat after recording two wins, two top-four finishes, and four stage wins in the first seven playoff races, and a 4EVER 400 win will only better his standing with oddsmakers.
In his last seven appearances at Homestead, Larson has five top-five finishes. Unfortunately, there's not a lot of value in backing him for a top five (-275 at Bovada) or even a top-three finish (-145).
Will Byron continue his hot streak of high finishes? He finished seventh last week, his sixth top-ten finish thus far in the playoffs.
Four of those finishes are in the top five, including a win in the Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 at Texas. At Bovada, 4EVER 400 odds have him at +105 to register another top five. I am all over that one.
Playoff Results for William Byron
- South Point 400 (Las Vegas): 7th
- Bank of America Roval 400 (Charlotte): 2nd
- YellaWood 500 (Talladega): 2nd
- Autotrader EchoPark Automotive 400 (Texas): 1st
- Bass Pro Shops Night Race (Bristol): 9th
- Hollywood Casino 400 (Kansas): 15th
- Cook Out Southern 500 (Darlington): 4th
After finishing 11th or better in the first six playoff races, Chase Elliott finished 32nd last week after having to use his backup car due to a pre-qualifying crash.
That result significantly affected his chances for the owner's championship, as his #9 team is now 61 points behind the #20 team.
Elliott hasn't had the best fortune this season in a variety of ways, but I do expect him to bounce back from his rough weekend at Las Vegas. At Bovada, he is -130 for a top-ten finish in the 4EVER 400.
Brad Keselowski is a bit out of my ideal range to back for a top-ten finish (-160 at Bovada). But if you don't mind taking the hit, he is a great option. He finished fourth last week and now has five top-ten finishes in the playoffs.
And what about the man of the hour, Harvick? He has just one top-ten finish in the playoffs, a sixth-place finish at Texas.
But he has 19 top-ten finishes in 22 Cup Series starts at Homestead, and he is -105 at Bovada to make it an even 20 in the 4EVER 400. Are you going to pass on that? I'm not.
Recent NASCAR Cup Series at Homestead Winners
- 2022: Kyle Larson
- 2021: William Byron
- 2020: Denny Hamlin
- 2019: Kyle Busch
- 2018: Joey Logano
- 2017: Martin Truex Jr.
- 2016: Jimmie Johnson
- 2015: Kyle Busch
- 2014: Kevin Harvick
- 2013: Denny Hamlin
But who will cross the finish line first on Sunday? I don't think the person that does will be a first-time winner at Homestead.
Like Byron, Hamlin has a win and four other top-five finishes thus far in the playoffs. With a win, he will not only lock up a spot in the Championship 4, but he will also become the first four-time winner of this race.
I'm sprinkling a bit on both Byron and Hamlin with my 4EVER 400 race winner picks, but the bigger outlay will be on the #11 to pick up his fourth win of the season.
Where to Bet on NASCAR
Many of the top sports betting sites offer a variety of NASCAR betting odds. Throughout the season, you can bet on races like the Daytona 500, Coca-Cola 600, and others.
Along with being able to bet on the winner of each Cup Series, Xfinity Series, and/or Truck Series race, sportsbooks like Bovada offer finishing position odds (top 3, top 5, and/or top 10).
Also, odds on who will finish at the top of the championship standings are available at many reputable sportsbooks.
In addition to Bovada, here are some of the sites that we recommend if you are interested in NASCAR betting:
If you don't have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.
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