#16 Virginia vs. #20 Louisville Picks and Predictions: Top 20 ACC Matchup
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Jan 14, 2026, 9:53 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two top 20 teams in the nation go head to head in this ranked ACC battle at the KFC Yum! Center on Super Tuesday. The No. 20 Louisville Cardinals are still a bit shorthanded as they host the No. 16 Virginia Cavaliers. The Cavs have lost just twice this year, to Butler on a neutral site and to their rival Virginia Tech in triple overtime on the road. But they are on a three game winning streak and will look to keep it going on the road tonight. Do they have it in them? Or will Pat Kelsey's team assert their dominance? Let's find out with our favorite picks.
Best Bet: Isaac McKneely (LVille) Over 11.5 Points (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#16 Virginia Cavaliers vs. #20 Louisville Cardinals NCAA Basketball Insights
Thijs de Ridder leads Virginia with 16.4 points per game, adding 6.1 rebounds as well
Virginia is a very slow team. They have seen just three games total at least 70 possessions in regulation, and two of those games were part of their opening five contests. Tonight, they will need to severely limit the chances they give the Cardinals, because this is a very potent offense they are facing. However, Louisville will still be missing stud freshman Mikel Brown Jr. who remains injured on the sidelines. Can the other Cardinal guards step up in his absence?
The Cardinals have lost four games, and I'll forgive them on three of them. They lost on the road to Arkansas and Tennessee and then to the Duke Blue Devils at home. However, losing to Stanford does not look great. Coming off a home win against Boston College, do they have what it takes to take down this top 12 team.
Matchup Information – Virginia vs. Louisville – January 13
- Venue & Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, KY)
- Date: Tuesday, January 13, 2025
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN2
Virginia vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of January 13, 2025 at 2:38 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Virginia +3 (-107)
- Louisville -3 (-113)
Moneyline
- Virginia +132
- Louisville -160
Total
- Over 155 (-112)
- Under 155 (-108)
Louisville is going to try and run, and they take a bunch of threes. Lucky for them, they shoot almost 10% better from deep and inside the arc at home compared to on the road. Will Virginia have the defense to slow them down?
#16 Virginia vs. #20 Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Isaac McNeely shoots over 42% from deep at home this season
Virginia vs. Louisville Prediction: Louisville Wins and Covers, Over 155
Best Bet: Isaac McKneely (LVille) Over 11.5 Points (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
As much as I lean with Louisville and the over, I've chosen to back Isaac McKneely to put the ball in the hoop. This is a bit of a "personal revenge" game, as he spent his first three years of collegiate hoops playing for Virginia. I see him shining against his former team.
I originally looked at his threes, which is listed at over 2.5 for the same price. However, I see him doing whatever it takes to score. No Mikel Brown, and Ryan Conwell is a little banged up, so the Cardinals should turn to their shooter to put up plenty of points. He leads the team in minutes, averaging 29 per game, but he's played at least 30 in six straight, averaging closer to 34 minutes per game during that stretch. He shoots 42.9% from deep at home, and 84% of his shots come from downtown, but obviously Virginia knows this. They will do whatever it takes to make him put the ball on the floor instead of getting good looks off the pass from downtown.
However I don't think it matters. McKneely takes 1.4 more threes at home than he does on the road, he's had a minimum of five three point attempts in 14/16 games this year, and has cleared this line in half his contests, ending with 11 points twice. I will be kicking myself if he knocks down three threes and goes 2/2 from the stripe, but I see him taking enough shots to clear this line with ease.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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