#8 Florida State vs. Virginia Picks and Predictions: Friday Night Lights in the ACC

Last Update: Fri Sep 26, 2025, 8:21 am ET

Read Time: 6 minutes

J'Mari Taylor already has six rushing touchdowns on the season - Florida State Virginia Picks

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The No. 8 ranked undefeated Florida State Seminoles kick off ACC play this Friday Night as they head to Charlottesville to take on the Virginia Cavaliers. After winning just two games all of last season, the Seminoles surprised everyone by shocking the No. 8 ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in Week 1, beating their visitors by two touchdowns, even though they were underdogs of that same number. Since then, they've had two huge wins over bad opponents, and now get to begin conference play. Let's get into our favorite picks for this matchup.

Editor's Note: This pick is still a go, and remains one of my favorites for Friday's slate.

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#8 Florida State Seminoles vs. Virginia Cavaliers NCAA Football Insights

Tommy Castellanos is ready to revamp the Florida State Seminoles

The Virginia Cavaliers have played an extra game compared to the Seminoles. The Cavs opened up the season with a huge win against Coastal Carolina, but that doesn't move the needle for me, as the Chanticleers only have wins over South Alabama and Charleston Southern. They followed that up by losing to NC State in a battle that technically didn't count for conference play. Lucky for Virginia, they have won their last two, beating the Stanford Cardinal in their first official ACC contest.

Now they have a top 10 team coming to town, whom they beat in their last head to head meeting back in 2019.

The Seminoles could be the biggest surprise of the season so far, but they've still got a long way to go. This will be their first road contest of the season, plus they might be looking ahead to face the No. 2 Miami Hurricanes in South Beach next week (where the hosts will be coming off a bye). But this team is certainly out to prove the haters wrong, and it starts with a big conference win on the road this Friday night.

Matchup Information – Florida State vs. Virginia – September 26

Venue & Location: Scott Stadium (Charlottesville, VA)
Date: Friday, September 26, 2025
Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
Broadcast: ESPN

Florida State vs. Virginia Betting Odds

Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of September 26, 2025 at 8:20 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with Promo Code BNBOL55 for a 55% deposit bonus.

Spread

Florida State -7 (-105)
Virginia +7 (-115)

Moneyline

Florida State -265
Virginia +29

Total

Over 60 (-115)
Under 60 (-105)

The past two weeks, Florida State has put up 66 and 77 points, plus they put up 31 against Alabama. The offense is firing, but Tommy Castellanos was injured in their last contest. Based on reports and the betting lines, it looks as if he will be good to go on Friday, but it would not surprise me if the Seminoles decide to limit him, saving him for their next matchup.

Castellanos did not appear in the entire second half, but assured fans that he was alright via a TikTok live following the game. The Boston College transfer already has the Seminoles off to a red hot start, but can they keep it up on the road in conference play?

#8 Florida State vs. Virginia NCAA Football Picks and Predictions

Chandler Morris has this Cavalier offense firing on all cylinders

Florida State vs. Virginia Prediction: Florida State Wins, Virginia Covers, Over 59.5

Best Bet: Virginia 1H Team Total Over 12.5 (-125) Bovada

Both teams are coming off a short week to prepare for this game, and both are coming off huge wins at home. However Florida State finally has to leave Tallahassee, and it could be a "wake up call" or a "coming back down to Earth" game for the Seminoles. On the other sideline, Virginia has been putting up ridiculous numbers offensively.

Virginia Cavaliers Offense This Season

vs. Coastal Carolina: 454 total yards, 41 offensive points (one kick return TD)
@ NC State: 514 total yards, 31 points
vs. William & Mary: 700 total yards, 55 points
vs. Stanford: 590 total yards, 48 points

In the midst of all of this, Virginia has converted 38/66 third downs (57.6%) and have just two turnovers. Starting QB Chandler Morris threw a pick against NC State, while the back up, Daniel Kaelin threw one against William & Mary. The Cavaliers can put up points, and they've been doing so very early in games so far this season.

Virginia Cavaliers Halftime Scores

Led Coastal 28-0
Led NC State 24-14
Led William & Mary 42-7
Led Stanford 28-14

They've had no problem scoring two touchdowns quickly, doing so in 3/4 first quarters. Sure, Florida State's defense might be the toughest they've seen so far this season, but they let Alabama score on their first scripted drive of the game before settling in defensively. I see plenty of back and forth in this potential shootout, but am more than confident the hosts are able to start off quickly on Friday Night. Give me Virginia to cash this in two drives as we prepare for a massive College Football Saturday.

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Nate Hornung

Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.

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